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Bayesian demographic estimation and forecasting

Author: John Bryant; Junni L Zhang
Publisher: Boca Raton : CRC Press, [2019] ©2019
Series: Statistics in the social and behavioral sciences series.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: John Bryant; Junni L Zhang
ISBN: 9780429841330 0429841337
OCLC Number: 1042329301
Description: 1 online resource.
Contents: Cover --
Half title --
Title --
Copyright --
Contents --
Preface --
Chapter 1 Introduction --
1.1 Example: Mortality Rates for M¯aori --
1.2 Our Approach to Demographic Estimation and Forecasting --
1.3 Outline of the Rest of the Book --
1.4 References and Further Reading --
Part I Demographic Foundations --
Chapter 2 Demographic Foundations --
2.1 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 3 Demographic Individuals --
3.1 Attributes --
3.2 Events --
3.3 Lexis Diagram --
3.4 Twelve Fictitious Individuals --
3.5 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 4 Demographic Arrays --
4.1 Population Counts --
4.2 Death Counts --
4.3 Movements --
4.4 Alternative Representations of Changing Statuses --
4.5 Non-Demographic Events --
4.6 Exposure --
4.7 Age, Period, and Cohort --
4.8 Rates, Proportions, Means, and Ratios --
4.9 Super-Population and Finite-Population Quantities --
4.10 Collapsing Dimensions --
4.11 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 5 Demographic Accounts --
5.1 Demographic Systems --
5.2 Demographic Accounts --
5.3 Account with No Region and No Age --
5.4 Account with Region and No Age --
5.5 Account with Age and No Region --
5.6 Movements Accounts and Transitions Accounts* --
5.7 Mathematical Description of Accounting Identities* --
5.8 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 6 Demographic Data --
6.1 Traditional Data Sources --
6.2 New Data Sources --
6.3 Data Quality and Model Choice --
6.4 References and Further Reading --
Part II Bayesian Foundations --
Chapter 7 Bayesian Foundations --
7.1 Bayesian Statistics --
7.2 Features of a Bayesian Data Analysis --
7.3 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 8 Bayesian Model Specification --
8.1 Using Probability Distributions to Quantify Uncertainty . . --
8.2 Posterior as a Compromise between Likelihood and Prior . --
8.3 Standard Probability Distributions. 8.3.1 Poisson Distribution --
8.3.2 Binomial Distribution --
8.3.3 Normal Distribution --
8.3.4 Half-t Distribution --
8.4 Exchangeability --
8.5 Partial Exchangeability --
8.5.1 Exchangeability within Groups --
8.5.2 Exchangeable Residuals --
8.5.3 Exchangeable Increments --
8.6 Pooling Information --
8.7 Hierarchy --
8.8 Incorporating External Information --
8.8.1 Priors --
8.8.2 Covariates --
8.8.3 Embedding the Model in a Larger Model --
8.9 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 9 Bayesian Inference and Model Checking --
9.1 Computation --
9.2 Summarizing the Posterior Distribution --
9.2.1 Summary Measures --
9.2.2 Calculating Posterior Summaries --
9.3 Derived Distributions --
9.3.1 Posterior Distribution for Derived Quantities --
9.3.2 Posterior Predictive Distribution --
9.4 Missing Data --
9.5 Forecasting --
9.6 Model Checking --
9.6.1 Responsible Modelers Check and Revise their Models --
9.6.2 Heldback Data --
9.6.3 Replicate Data --
9.7 Simulation and Calibration* --
9.8 References and Further Reading --
Part III Inferring Arrays from Reliable Data --
Chapter 10 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Reliable Data --
10.1 Summary of the Framework of Part III --
10.2 Applications --
10.3 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 11 Infant Mortality in Sweden --
11.1 Infant Mortality Rate --
11.2 Infant Mortality Rates in Swedish Counties --
11.3 Model --
11.3.1 Likelihood --
11.3.2 Model for Underlying Infant Mortality Rates --
11.3.3 Prior for Region Effect --
11.3.4 Prior for Time Effect --
11.3.5 Prior for Intercept --
11.3.6 Prior for Standard Deviation --
11.3.7 Summary --
11.4 Results --
11.4.1 Infant Mortality Rates --
11.4.2 Intercept, Region Effects, and Time Effects --
11.4.3 Prior for Time Effect --
11.4.4 Standard Deviations --
11.5 Model Checking --
11.5.1 Model Predictions versus Direct Estimates. 11.5.2 Regional Variation in Slopes --
11.6 Summarizing Results via Probabilities --
11.7 Forecasting --
11.7.1 Constructing the Forecasts --
11.7.2 Results: Exploding Credible Intervals for Forecasting --
11.7.3 A Partial Solution --
11.8 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 12 Life Expectancy in Portugal --
12.1 Mortality Rates --
12.2 Log Function --
12.3 Life Expectancy --
12.4 Age, Sex, and Time Effects --
12.5 Interactions --
12.6 Models --
12.6.1 Likelihood --
12.6.2 Model for Mortality Rates --
12.6.3 Prior for Age Effect --
12.6.4 Prior for Time Effect --
12.6.5 Prior for Age-Time Interaction --
12.6.6 Prior for Sex-Time Interaction --
12.6.7 Priors for Other Terms --
12.6.8 Summary --
12.7 Model Choice Using Heldback Data --
12.8 Estimating and Forecasting --
12.9 Comparing the Forecasts with the Heldback Data --
12.10 Results --
12.11 Forecasting of Life Expectancy for 2016-2035 --
12.12 Obtaining Forecasts of Life Expectancy* --
12.13 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 13 Health Expenditure in the Netherlands --
13.1 A Simple Expenditure Projection --
13.2 Expenditure Projections for the Netherlands --
13.3 A Statistical Model for Per Capita Expenditures --
13.4 Model Checking via Replicate Data --
13.5 Revised Expenditure Projections --
13.6 Forecasting Policy Outcomes --
13.7 References and Further Reading --
Part IV Inferring Arrays from Unreliable Data --
Chapter 14 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Unreliable Data --
14.1 Summary of the Framework --
14.2 Data Models --
14.3 Applications --
14.4 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 15 Internal Migration in Iceland --
15.1 Internal Migration in Iceland --
15.2 Confidentialization by Random Rounding to Base Three . . --
15.3 Overview of Model --
15.4 System Model --
15.5 Data Model --
15.6 Estimation --
15.7 Results for Unconfidentialized Migration Counts. 15.8 Results for Migration Rates --
15.9 Forecasting --
15.10 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 16 Fertility in Cambodia --
16.1 Data --
16.2 Overview of Model --
16.3 System Model --
16.4 Data Models --
16.4.1 2008 Census --
16.4.2 2010 Demographic and Health Survey --
16.5 Results --
16.6 Revised Model --
16.7 Final Model --
16.8 References and Further Reading --
Part V Inferring Accounts --
Chapter 17 Inferring Demographic Accounts --
17.1 Summary of Our Approach --
17.2 Applications --
17.3 Demographic Accounts in Official Statistical Systems --
17.4 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 18 Population in New Zealand --
18.1 Input Data for the National Demographic Account --
18.2 Model for National Demographic Account --
18.2.1 Overview --
18.2.2 Account --
18.2.3 System Models --
18.2.4 Data Models --
18.2.5 Estimation --
18.3 Results for the National Demographic Account --
18.4 Sensitivity Tests for the National Demographic Account . . --
18.5 Input Data for the Regional Demographic Account --
18.6 Model for the Regional Demographic Account --
18.6.1 System Models --
18.6.2 Data Models --
18.7 Results for the Regional Demographic Account --
18.8 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 19 Population in China --
19.1 Input Data --
19.2 Model --
19.2.1 Overview --
19.2.2 Account --
19.2.3 System Models --
19.2.4 Data Models --
19.2.5 Estimation and Forecasting --
19.3 Results --
19.4 References and Further Reading --
Chapter 20 Conclusion --
20.1 References and Further Reading --
Bibliography --
Index.
Series Title: Statistics in the social and behavioral sciences series.
Responsibility: by John Bryant, Junni L. Zhang.

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