skip to content
The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable Preview this item
ClosePreview this item
Checking...

The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: New York : Random House, ©2007.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : English : 1st edView all editions and formats
Summary:
"A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of  Read more...
Rating:

(not yet rated) 0 with reviews - Be the first.

Subjects
More like this

Find a copy online

Links to this item

Find a copy in the library

&AllPage.SpinnerRetrieving; Finding libraries that hold this item...

Details

Genre/Form: Electronic book collection
Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 1960-
Black swan.
New York : Random House, ©2007
(DLC) 2006051093
(OCoLC)71833470
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN: 9781588365835 1588365832 9780679604181 0679604189
OCLC Number: 989852291
Reproduction Notes: Electronic reproduction. [Place of publication not identified] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2017. MiAaHDL
Description: 1 online resource (xxviii, 366 pages) : illustrations
Details: Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.
Contents: Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd --
We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? --
Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony --
The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan --
Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans.
Responsibility: Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Abstract:

"A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them."--Jacket.

Reviews

User-contributed reviews
Retrieving GoodReads reviews...
Retrieving DOGObooks reviews...

Tags

Be the first.
Confirm this request

You may have already requested this item. Please select Ok if you would like to proceed with this request anyway.

Linked Data


Primary Entity

<http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/989852291> # The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable
    a schema:CreativeWork, schema:MediaObject, schema:Book ;
    library:oclcnum "989852291" ;
    library:placeOfPublication <http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/countries/nyu> ;
    library:placeOfPublication <http://dbpedia.org/resource/New_York_City> ; # New York
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/teoria_da_informacao_aspectos_sociais> ; # Teoria da informação (aspectos sociais)
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/forecasting> ; # Forecasting
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/sozialpsychologie> ; # Sozialpsychologie
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/ungewissheit> ; # Ungewissheit
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/uncertainty_information_theory_social_aspects> ; # Uncertainty (Information theory) / Social aspects
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/ereignis> ; # Ereignis
    schema:about <http://dewey.info/class/003.54/e22/> ;
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/incertitude_theorie_de_l_information_aspect_social> ; # Incertitude (Théorie de l'information)--Aspect social
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/prognose> ; # Prognose
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/informationsteori> ; # Informationsteori
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/techniques_de_prevision> ; # Techniques de prévision
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/prevision> ; # Prévision
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/wahrscheinlichkeit> ; # Wahrscheinlichkeit
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/framtidsstudier> ; # Framtidsstudier
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/probability> ; # Probability
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/informationstheorie> ; # Informationstheorie
    schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/aspects_sociaux> ; # Aspects sociaux
    schema:bookEdition "1st ed." ;
    schema:bookFormat schema:EBook ;
    schema:copyrightYear "2007" ;
    schema:creator <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Person/taleb_nassim_nicholas_1960> ; # Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    schema:datePublished "2007" ;
    schema:description "Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans."@en ;
    schema:description ""A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them."--Jacket."@en ;
    schema:exampleOfWork <http://worldcat.org/entity/work/id/495808067> ;
    schema:genre "Electronic book collection"@en ;
    schema:genre "Electronic books"@en ;
    schema:inLanguage "en" ;
    schema:isSimilarTo <http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/71833470> ;
    schema:name "The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable"@en ;
    schema:productID "989852291" ;
    schema:publication <http://www.worldcat.org/title/-/oclc/989852291#PublicationEvent/new_york_random_house_2007> ;
    schema:publisher <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Agent/random_house> ; # Random House
    schema:url <http://kclibrary.lib.overdrive.com/ContentDetails.htm?ID=A2F9E566-2BB1-4C8A-BA29-C7061A808895> ;
    schema:url <https://samples.overdrive.com/?crid=8812A9C1-8365-48A2-9D23-1E3E3A9237D8&.epub-sample.overdrive.com> ;
    schema:url <http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/71833470.html> ;
    schema:url <https://www.overdrive.com/media/8812A9C1-8365-48A2-9D23-1E3E3A9237D8> ;
    schema:workExample <http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780679604181> ;
    schema:workExample <http://worldcat.org/isbn/9781588365835> ;
    wdrs:describedby <http://www.worldcat.org/title/-/oclc/989852291> ;
    .


Related Entities

<http://dbpedia.org/resource/New_York_City> # New York
    a schema:Place ;
    schema:name "New York" ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Agent/random_house> # Random House
    a bgn:Agent ;
    schema:name "Random House" ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Person/taleb_nassim_nicholas_1960> # Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    a schema:Person ;
    schema:birthDate "1960" ;
    schema:familyName "Taleb" ;
    schema:givenName "Nassim Nicholas" ;
    schema:name "Nassim Nicholas Taleb" ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/incertitude_theorie_de_l_information_aspect_social> # Incertitude (Théorie de l'information)--Aspect social
    a schema:Intangible ;
    schema:name "Incertitude (Théorie de l'information)--Aspect social"@fr ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/informationsteori> # Informationsteori
    a schema:Intangible ;
    schema:name "Informationsteori"@en ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/informationstheorie> # Informationstheorie
    a schema:Intangible ;
    schema:name "Informationstheorie"@en ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/sozialpsychologie> # Sozialpsychologie
    a schema:Intangible ;
    schema:name "Sozialpsychologie"@en ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/techniques_de_prevision> # Techniques de prévision
    a schema:Intangible ;
    schema:name "Techniques de prévision"@en ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/teoria_da_informacao_aspectos_sociais> # Teoria da informação (aspectos sociais)
    a schema:Intangible ;
    schema:name "Teoria da informação (aspectos sociais)"@en ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/uncertainty_information_theory_social_aspects> # Uncertainty (Information theory) / Social aspects
    a schema:Intangible ;
    schema:name "Uncertainty (Information theory) / Social aspects"@en ;
    schema:name "Uncertainty (Information theory)--Social aspects"@en ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/495808067#Topic/wahrscheinlichkeit> # Wahrscheinlichkeit
    a schema:Intangible ;
    schema:name "Wahrscheinlichkeit"@en ;
    .

<http://kclibrary.lib.overdrive.com/ContentDetails.htm?ID=A2F9E566-2BB1-4C8A-BA29-C7061A808895>
    rdfs:comment "Kansas City Public Library cardholders click here" ;
    .

<http://worldcat.org/isbn/9780679604181>
    a schema:ProductModel ;
    schema:isbn "0679604189" ;
    schema:isbn "9780679604181" ;
    .

<http://worldcat.org/isbn/9781588365835>
    a schema:ProductModel ;
    schema:isbn "1588365832" ;
    schema:isbn "9781588365835" ;
    .

<http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/71833470>
    a schema:CreativeWork ;
    rdfs:label "Black swan." ;
    schema:description "Print version:" ;
    schema:isSimilarTo <http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/989852291> ; # The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable
    .


Content-negotiable representations

Close Window

Please sign in to WorldCat 

Don't have an account? You can easily create a free account.