The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable (Book, 2007) []
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The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: London : Allen Lane, 2007.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
'The Black Swan' is a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. Nassim Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.

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Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN: 9780713999952 0713999950 1846140455 9781846140457 9780141034591 0141034599
OCLC Number: 78989164
Awards: Short-listed for Financial Times/Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2007
Description: xxviii, 366 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
Contents: pt. 1. Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation --
Ch. 1. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic --
Ch. 2. Yevgenia's black swan --
Ch. 3. The speculator and the prostitute --
Ch. 4. One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker --
Ch. 5. Confirmation shmonfirmation! --
Ch. 6. The narrative fallacy --
Ch. 7. Living in the antechamber of hope --
Ch. 8. Glacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence --
Ch. 9. The ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd --
pt. 2. We just can't predict --
Ch. 10. The scandal of prediction --
Ch. 11. How to look for bird poop --
Ch. 12. Epistemocracy, a dream --
Ch. 13. Appelles the painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? --
pt. 3. Those gray swans of Extremistan --
Ch. 14. From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and back --
Ch. 15. The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud --
Ch. 16. The aesthetics of randomness --
Ch. 17. Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places --
Ch. 18. The uncertainty of the phony --
pt. 4. The end --
Ch. 19. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan --
Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans.
Responsibility: Nassim Nicholas Taleb.


A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear  Read more...


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A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected * Guardian * Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling * Financial Times * It has altered Read more...

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