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  E-mail Message: I thought you might be interested in this item at http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/984510323 Title: The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publisher: New York : Random House, [©2012] ISBN/ISSN: 9781400063512 1400063515 OCLC:984510323

  
  

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The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable

Author:	Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher:	New York : Random House, [©2012]
Edition/Format:	Print book : English : 2nd ed., with a new section: "On robustness and fragility.View all editions and formats
Summary:	"A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essaym "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world"--Jacket.  Read more...
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Subjects	Uncertainty (Information theory) -- Social aspects. Forecasting. Incertitude (Théorie de l'information) -- Aspect social. View all subjects
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