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Charting the next pandemic : modeling infectious disease spreading in the data science age

Author: Ana Pastore y PionttiNicola PerraLuca RossiNicole SamayAlessandro VespignaniAll authors
Publisher: Cham : Springer, [2019]
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This book provides an introduction to the computational and complex systems modeling of the global spreading of infectious diseases. The latest developments in the area of contagion processes modeling are discussed, and readers are exposed to real world examples of data-model integration impacting the decision-making process. Recent advances in computational science and the increasing availability of real-world data  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Databases
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Pastore y Piontti, Ana.
Charting the Next Pandemic : Modeling Infectious Disease Spreading in the Data Science Age.
Cham : Springer, ©2018
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Ana Pastore y Piontti; Nicola Perra; Luca Rossi; Nicole Samay; Alessandro Vespignani; Corrado Gioannini; Marcelo F C Gomes; Bruno Gonçalves
ISBN: 331993290X 9783319932903
OCLC Number: 1076245320
Description: 1 online resource (221 pages) : color illustrations, color maps
Contents: Intro; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; About the authors; CONTENTS; INTRODUCTION; PART I HOW TO MODEL PANDEMICS; CHAPTER I INFECTIOUS DISEASE SPREADING: FROM DATA TO MODELS; COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE SPREADING; 1.1 DATA-INTENSIVE COMPUTATIONAL TOOL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES; GLOBAL EPIDEMIC AND MOBILITY MODEL; Preparation and contingency planning; Epidemiological explanations; Threats and systemic risk; Forecast; CHAPTER 2 DATA, DATA, AND MORE DATA; POPULATION; THE AGE STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD POPULATION; HUMAN MOBILITY; Long-Range Mobility; Short-Range Mobility. MOBILITY PATTERNS AND EPIDEMIC SPREADINGDISEASES; DISEASES INFLUENZA; VIRUS STRUCTURE; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; DISEASES CORONAVIRUS; VIRUS STRUCTURE; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; DISEASES FILOVIRUSES; VIRUS STRUCTURE; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURES; CHAPTER 3 DATA MODEL INTEGRATION: THE GLOBAL EPIDEMIC AND MOBILITY FRAMEWORK; BUILDING A SYNTHETIC WORLD; MOVING PEOPLE AROUND; 3.1 MIXING SUB POPULATIONS; THE DISEASE DYNAMIC; 3.2 MODELING THE DISEASE TRANSMISSION; SYNTHETIC EPIDEMICS; 3.3 DISEASE COMPARTMENTAL STRUCTURE; Influenza; Influenza with antiviral pharmaceutical interventions. SARS-like viruses and their non-pharmaceutical containmentViral hemorrhagic fever compartmental model; CHAPTER 4 FROM DATA TO KNOWLEDGE: HOW MODELS CAN BE USED; AFFECTED COUNTRIES; INVASION TREE; EPIDEMIC PROFILES AND ACTIVITY PEAK; ATTACK RATE; RISK INDICATORS AND SEVERITY ASSESSMENT; CONTAINMENT AND MITIGATION SCENARIOS; CHAPTER 5 THE NUMERICAL FORECAST OF PANDEMIC SPREADING: THE CASE STUDY OF THE 2009 A/H1N1 PDM; MODELING THE 2009 H1N1 PANDEMIC; CALIBRATION AND PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR SPECIFIC OUTBREAKS; FORECAST OUTPUT; 5.1 MODEL CALIBRATION; INVASION TREE; PANDEMIC ACTIVITY PEAKS. RISK AND SEVERITY ASSESSMENTVACCINATION CAMPAIGNS; REAL-TIME FORECAST WITH COMPUTATIONAL EPIDEMIC MODELS; PART II PANDEMIC CHARTS; PANDEMIC CHARTS; PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; CHART LAYOUT: PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; BARCELONA, SPAIN; BUENOS AIRES, ARGENTINA; HANOI, VIETNAM; JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA; MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA; NEW YORK CITY, USA; CORONAVIRUS; CHART LAYOUT: CORONAVIRUS; BARCELONA, SPAIN; GUANGZHOU, CHINA; JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA; EBOLA VIRUS; CHART LAYOUT: EBOLA VIRUS; ARUA, UGANDA; KISANGANI, DEM. REP. OF THE CONGO; LAGOS, NIGERIA; CHAPATER 6 COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF "DISEASE X"; OUTLOOK. Suggested ReadingEPIDEMIC MODELING TEXTBOOKS; PERSPECTIVES AND COMMENTARIES; METAPOPULATION MODELS; GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS AND EPIDEMICS; HUMAN MOBILITY AND EPIDEMIC DIFFUSION; AGENT-BASED MODELING APPROACHES; REAL-TIME PREDICTIVE MODELING.
Responsibility: Ana Pastore y Piontti [and four others].

Abstract:

This book provides an introduction to the computational and complex systems modeling of the global spreading of infectious diseases. The latest developments in the area of contagion processes modeling are discussed, and readers are exposed to real world examples of data-model integration impacting the decision-making process. Recent advances in computational science and the increasing availability of real-world data are making it possible to develop realistic scenarios and real-time forecasts of the global spreading of emerging health threats. The first part of the book guides the reader through sophisticated complex systems modeling techniques with a non-technical and visual approach, explaining and illustrating the construction of the modern framework used to project the spread of pandemics and epidemics. Models can be used to transform data to knowledge that is intuitively communicated by powerful infographics and for this reason, the second part of the book focuses on a set of charts that illustrate possible scenarios of future pandemics. The visual atlas contained allows the reader to identify commonalities and patterns in emerging health threats, as well as explore the wide range of models and data that can be used by policy makers to anticipate trends, evaluate risks and eventually manage future events. Charting the Next Pandemic puts the reader in the position to explore different pandemic scenarios and to understand the potential impact of available containment and prevention strategies. This book emphasizes the importance of a global perspective in the assessment of emerging health threats and captures the possible evolution of the next pandemic, while at the same time providing the intelligence needed to fight it. The text will appeal to a wide range of audiences with diverse technical backgrounds.--

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"This book is rather informative about what it takes to appropriately model the rise and spread of an infectious disease. It is useful in highlighting what types of data are needed to model these Read more...

 
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