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A Critical review of VAN : earthquake prediction from seismic electrical signals

Author: M J Lighthill, Sir.; International Council of Scientific Unions.; Royal Society (Great Britain)
Publisher: Singapore ; New Jersey : World Scientific, ©1996.
Edition/Format:   Print book : Conference publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
The acronym VAN refers to Drs Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos, members of a group based in the University of Athens and led by Professor Varotsos (head of the Physics Department) which for over a decade has sought to use electric-field measurements between electrodes buried in the earth to predict earthquakes in Greece over periods of order one month or less. But is such "short-term" prediction achievable by the  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Conference papers and proceedings
Congresses
Material Type: Conference publication
Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: M J Lighthill, Sir.; International Council of Scientific Unions.; Royal Society (Great Britain)
ISBN: 9810225423 9789810225421 9810226705 9789810226701
OCLC Number: 35027994
Language Note: English.
Notes: "This book summarises the proceedings of the meeting ... held jointly by the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and the Royal Society at the Society's London premises on 11-12 May 1995"--Page v.
Description: ix, 376 pages : illustrations, maps ; 23 cm
Contents: PREFACE; CONTENTS; Part I What is VAN?; INTRODUCTION TO THE VAN METHOD OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; 1 Introduction; 2 Outline of the VAN Method; 2.1 What they measure; 2.2 Seismic Electric Signals (SES); 2.3 The lead time; 2.4 The Selectivity (the way to predict epicenter); 2.5 The VAN-relation (the way to predict the magnitude); 2.6 Practice of Prediction and Results; 3 Major Criticisms and Some Related Aspects; 3.1 Are SES noise?; 3.2 Are the VAN success and alarm rates low?; 3.3 By chance?; 3.4 Lacking in physical mechanism?; 4 Conclusion; Acknowledgments; Appendix; References. SHORT TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN GREECE BY SEISMIC ELECTRIC SIGNALS1 Introduction. Motivation of the field experiments; 2 Configuration of the network; 3 Summary of SES physical properties; 4 Predictions issued by the VAN telemetric network; 5 Can VAN predictions be ascribed to chance?; 6 Conclusions; APPENDIX I; APPENDIX II; APPENDIX III; APPENDIX IV; References; THE TELEMETRIC SYSTEM OF VAN GROUP; Introduction; Configuration of the field station; The real-time telemetry system; The Dataloggers Technique System; References; Part II Possible SES Mechanisms. PHYSICAL MECHANISMS FOR GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF SEISMIC ELECTRICAL SIGNALS1 Introduction; 2 Characteristics of Seismic Electrical Signals; 3 Models for Earthquakes; 4 Propagation of SES; 5 Future Research; Reference; A DISLOCATION MODEL FOR SEISMIC ELECTRIC SIGNALS; 1 Introduction; 2 Charged Dislocations; 3 The Model; References; LABORATORY INVESTIGATION OF THE ELECTRIC SIGNALS PRECEDING EARTHQUAKES; Introduction; Experimental apparatus; Results; A. Stress induced polarization currents; B. Electromagnetic and acoustic emission; Discussion; Conclusions; References. ON ELECTROTELLURIC SIGNALS1 Introduction; 2 The Meriel Quarry; 2.1. First experiment; 2.2. Second experiment; 3 The Piton de la Fournaise Volcano; 4 The Djibouti Experiment; 5 The Ioannina Experiment; 6 Electrokinetics Signals; 7 Plausibility of Long Distance Electrotelluric Precursors; 8 General Conclusion; References; Part III Counterarguments Against the VAN Approach; VAN: A CRITICAL EVALUATION; 1 Introduction; 2 Past efforts at earthquake prediction; 2.1 Research prior to 1960; 2.2 Research after 1960; 2.3 Prediction efforts based on electromagnetic phenomena. 2.4 Empirical search for precursors2.5 Improved observations --
worsening precursors; 3 Are earthquakes predictable?; 3.1 How should we evaluate VAN?; 3.2 Lessons from ""pathological science""; 4 SC-IDNDR's study of VAN; 4.1 Discussion of VAN at the Yokohama meeting; 4.2 London meeting; 5 Costs and Benefits of Operational Earthquake Prediction; 5.1 Possible reductions (or increases) in deaths and injuries; 6 Are VAN's statements earthquake predictions?; 6.1 ""Prediction""; 6.2 ""Earthquake prediction""; 6.3 Definition of Earthquake Prediction; 6.4 VAN's ""predictions""
Responsibility: editor, James Lighthill.

Abstract:

The acronym VAN refers to Drs Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos, members of a group which have sought to use electric-field measurements between electrodes buried in the earth to predict earthquakes.  Read more...

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