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Decision fatigue and heuristic analyst forecasts

Author: David Hirshleifer; Yaron Levi; Ben Lourie; Siew Hong Teoh; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2018.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 24293.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts’ judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: David Hirshleifer; Yaron Levi; Ben Lourie; Siew Hong Teoh; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 1023437072
Notes: "February 2018"
Description: 1 online resource (41 pages).
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 24293.
Responsibility: David Hirshleifer, Yaron Levi, Ben Lourie, Siew Hong Teoh.

Abstract:

Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts’ judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued increases. Also consistent with decision fatigue, we find that the more forecasts an analyst issues, the higher the likelihood the analyst resorts to more heuristic decisions by herding more closely with the consensus forecast and also by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts). Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst decision fatigue.

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