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Earthquake occurrence : short- and long-term models and their validation

Author: Rodolfo Console; Maura Murru; Giuseppe Falcone, (Geophysicist)
Publisher: London, UK : ISTE, Ltd. ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, ©2017 2017.
Series: Mathematics and statistics series (ISTE)., Statistical methods for earthquakes set ;, v. 1.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
"'Earthquake Occurrence' provides the reader with a review of algorithms applicable for modeling seismicity, such as short-term earthquake clustering and pseudo-periodic long-term behavior of major earthquakes. The concept of the likelihood ratio of a set of observations under different hypotheses is applied for comparison among various models. In short-term models, known by the term ETAS, the occurrence space and  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Textbooks
Additional Physical Format: Ebook version :
Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Rodolfo Console; Maura Murru; Giuseppe Falcone, (Geophysicist)
ISBN: 9781786301246 1786301245
OCLC Number: 1004258576
Description: xxi, 138 pages : charts ; 25 cm.
Contents: Foreword --
Preface --
Introduction --
Chapter 1. Siesmicity and earthquake catalogues described as point processes --
1.1. The Gutenberg-Richter law --
1.2. The time-independent Poisson model --
1.3. Occurrence rate density as a space-time continuous variable --
1.4. Time-independent spatial distribution --
1.5. Clustered seismicity --
1.6. Epidemic models --
Chapter 2. The likelihood of a hypothesis --
2.1. The Bayes theorem --
2.2. Likelihood function --
2.3. Alternative formulations --
2.4. Likelihood ratio --
Chapter 3. The likelihood for a model of continuous rate density distribution --
3.1. The limit case of regions of infinitesimal dimensions --
3.2. The case of discrete regions --
3.3. The case of time independence --
3.4. The likelihood of an epidemic model in a 4-D space of parameters --
Chapter 4. Forecast verification procedures --
4.1. Scoring procedures --
4.2. The binary diagrams --
4.2.1. The ROC diagrams --
4.2.2. Molchan's error diagram --
4.2.3. Probability gain --
4.2.4. R-score --
4.3. Statistical tests implemented within CSEP --
4.3.1. Number test or N-test --
4.3.2. Data-consistency test or L-test --
4.3.3. S(pace)-test or S-test --
4.3.4. M(agnitude)-test or M-test --
Chapter 5. Applications of epidemic models --
5.1. Declustering a catalogue through an epidemic model --
5.2. Earthquake forecasting --
5.3. Seismic hazard maps for short-term forecast --
Chapter 6. Long-term earthquake occurrence models --
6.1. The empirical Gutenberg-Richter law and the time-independent model under the Poisson hypothesis --
6.2. Statistics of inter-event times --
6.3. The truncated magnitude distribution --
6.4. Earthquake rate assessment under a renewal time-dependent model --
6.4.1. Exponential distribution (under the time-dependent hypothesis) --
6.4.2. Log-normal distribution --
6.4.3. Gamma distribution --
6.4.4. Weibull distribution --
6.4.5. Double-exponential distribution --
6.4.6. BPT distribution --
6.5. Validation and comparison of renewal time-dependent models --
6.5.1. The likelihood ratio --
6.5.2. Long-term earthquake records --
6.5.3. Application of a Monte Carlo procedure --
6.5.4. Concluding remarks --
6.6. The Cornell method for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment --
6.7. Acknowledgments --
Chapter 7. Computer programs and examples of their use --
7.1. PDE2REC, ZMAP2REC --
7.2. REC2PDE --
7.3. SMOOTH --
7.4. LIKELAQP --
7.5. LIKSTAQP --
7.6. BPT --
Bibliography --
Index.
Series Title: Mathematics and statistics series (ISTE)., Statistical methods for earthquakes set ;, v. 1.
Responsibility: Rodolfo Console, Maura Murru, Giuseppe Falcone.

Abstract:

Earthquake Occurrence provides the reader with a review of algorithms applicable for modeling seismicity, such as short-term earthquake clustering and pseudo-periodic long-term behavior of major  Read more...

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