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Estimating Impact.

Author: Alexander Kott; Gary Citrenbaum
Publisher: Boston, MA : Springer US : Imprint: Springer, 2010.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Virtually all human endeavors can be analyzed and modeled and understood through computer-aided study, and that is very much at the core of operations research, game theory, and decision science. Understanding the potential impact of any action is critical to the success of that action, and in ESTIMATING IMPACT Alexander Kott and Gary Citrenbaum, with a stellar group of contributors, demonstrate how military or  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document
Document Type: Book, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Alexander Kott; Gary Citrenbaum
ISBN: 1489987274 9781489987273 1441962344 9781441962348
OCLC Number: 990672849
Language Note: English.
Notes: Chapter 6: Governance and Society.
Description: 1 online resource (375 pages)
Contents: Estimating Impact; Acknowledgments; Contents; About the Authors; Contributors; Chapter 1: Introduction: Judgment and Computation; 1 Common Recent Practices; 1.1 Planning Guides; 1.2 Historical Analogy; 1.3 Expert Judgment; 2 Emerging Computational Approaches; 3 The Roadmap of the Book; References; Chapter 2: Emerging Techniques and Tools; 1 Representing Situations; 2 Conceptual Modeling; 3 Computational Modeling; 4 Model Composition; 5 Exploring with Models; 6 Building Confidence in Models; 7 Summary; 8 Resources; References; Chapter 3: Politics and Power. 1 The Challenge of Political Modeling2 Theoretical Building Blocks; 3 Key Approaches to Conflict and Cooperation; 3.1 Macro Interstate Approaches; 3.2 Macro Intrastate Approaches; 3.2.1 Applications: Relative Political Capacity; 3.3 Micro Individual Approaches; 3.3.1 Senturion: A Micro Dynamic Model of Politics; 3.3.2 Defining the Political Landscape and Generating Data; 3.3.3 Overview of Senturion Algorithms; 3.3.4 Case Study: Iraq Elections, 2005; 4 Practical Advice; 5 Summary; 6 Resources; References; Chapter 4: Economics and Markets; 1 "Near-Economic" Behavior Modes. 2 Economic Behavior Modes3 Overview of Modeling Approaches; 4 Case Study: Resource Allocation in Law Enforcement; 5 Case Study: COMPOEX Economic Model; 5.1 Model Setting, Purpose, and Methodology; 5.2 Scope and Level of Detail; 5.3 Numerical Example; 5.3.1 Flow Diagram; 5.3.2 Equations for Stocks; 5.3.3 Hiring and Separation Rates; 5.3.4 Hiring to Change Employment; 5.3.5 Exogenous Input; 5.3.6 A Supplementary Equation; 5.3.7 Specifying the Simulation Routine; 5.4 Validating the Model; 5.5 Findings: Use of COMPOEX Model; 6 Practical Tips; 7 Summary; 8 Resources. 8.1 Economic Behaviors and Data8.2 Analytical Methods; References; Chapter 5: Media and Influence; 1 Media Influence Mechanisms and Effects; 1.1 Defining Key Concepts; 1.2 Media Influence Terminology; 2 Theoretical Underpinnings for Modeling Media Influence; 2.1 Communication Penetration Theory; 2.2 Source-Message-Channel-Receiver Model; 2.3 Opinion Leadership Theory; 2.4 Social Judgment Theory; 2.5 Media Agenda-Setting Theory; 2.6 Media Priming and Framing Effects; 2.7 Elaboration Likelihood Theory of Persuasion; 3 Methods for Modeling Information Influence. 3.1 Overview of Models and Methods3.2 Rational Choice Model; 3.3 Social Judgment Model; 3.4 Public Education and Broadcasting Model; 3.5 Elaboration Likelihood Model; 3.6 Media Influence Model; 4 A Computational Model of Media Influence; 4.1 Media Themes; 4.2 Message Sentiment and Framing; 4.3 Communication Penetration; 4.4 Message Rejection and Source Confidence; 4.5 Attitude Influence; 4.6 Media Channel Reach; 4.7 Media Channel Distortion; 4.8 Media Outlets; 4.9 Source Lines of Communication; 5 Illustrative Example; 6 Practical Tips; 7 Summary; 8 Resources; References.

Abstract:

Estimating Impact demonstrates how to anticipate and analyze the effects of military and humanitarian interventions before they occur. This approach combines two key perspectives -- emerging  Read more...

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From the reviews:"Anyone involved in modeling or planning will want this excellent introduction. ... The book also includes a variety of case studies and examples. The editors provide several tables Read more...

 
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