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Experts in uncertainty : opinion and subjective probability in science

Author: Roger M Cooke
Publisher: New York : Oxford University Press, 1991.
Series: Environmental ethics and science policy.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
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Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Roger M Cooke
ISBN: 0195064658 9780195064650
OCLC Number: 22710786
Description: xii, 321 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm.
Contents: Think tanks and oracles --
Expert opinion in practice --
Probabilistic thinking --
Heuristics and biases --
Building rational consensus --
Savage's normative decision theory --
Relative frequencies and exchangeability --
Elicitation and scoring --
Scoring rules for evaluating and weighing assessments --
Two experiments with calibration and entropy --
Combining expert opinions : review of the literature --
Classical model --
Bayesian model --
Psychological scaling models : paired comparisons --
Applications.
Series Title: Environmental ethics and science policy.
Responsibility: Roger M. Cooke.
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`clearly and meticulously presented ... a book that is so clear and honest about the limitations of its approach, is to be warmly welcomed as a contribution to a discussion which is by no means Read more...

 
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