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Forecasting the wages of young men : the effects of cohort size

Author: Hong W Tan; Michael P Ward; Rand Corporation.
Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. : Rand, [1985]
Series: R (Rand Corporation), R-3115-Army.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
In this study, the authors develop forecasts of the civilian wage structure over the next two decades for a variety of different scenarios. They focus on how the wage structure will change as the demographic trend reverses itself, i.e., as the smaller post-baby-boom birth cohorts enter the labor market in the 1980s and 1990s. Section II of the report describes the survey data used to create a working file for the  Read more...
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Additional Physical Format: Online version:
Tan, Hong W., 1949-
Forecasting the wages of young men.
Santa Monica, Calif. : Rand, [1985]
(OCoLC)622847151
Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Hong W Tan; Michael P Ward; Rand Corporation.
ISBN: 083300574X 9780833005748
OCLC Number: 10778221
Notes: "Prepared for Department of the Army."
"R-3115-Army."
"May 1985."
Description: xv, 58 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm.
Series Title: R (Rand Corporation), R-3115-Army.
Responsibility: Hong W. Tan, Michael P. Ward.

Abstract:

In this study, the authors develop forecasts of the civilian wage structure over the next two decades for a variety of different scenarios. They focus on how the wage structure will change as the demographic trend reverses itself, i.e., as the smaller post-baby-boom birth cohorts enter the labor market in the 1980s and 1990s. Section II of the report describes the survey data used to create a working file for the analysis. Based on this file, the authors paint a broad overview of how cohort size and relative wages have changed over the 1967-1980 period. Section III discusses the wage model used and highlights the main empirical results. The assumptions and approach used to forecast wages are detailed in Sec. IV. Section V extends the wage model to investigate two alternative explanations for the observed decline in youth wages. The last section concludes with a summary of the main findings and their implications for military compensation policy.

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