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A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil

Author: Christiane Baumeister; Bank of Canada,
Publisher: Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2016. ©2016
Series: Staff working paper (Bank of Canada), 2016-18.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : National government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset. Although this expectation in principle may be recovered by adjusting the futures price by the estimated risk premium, a  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document, Government publication, National government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Christiane Baumeister; Bank of Canada,
OCLC Number: 951221902
Language Note: Includes abstracts in English and French.
Notes: Distributed by the Government of Canada Depository Services Program (Weekly acquisitions list 2016-18).
"Ap̂ril 2016."
Description: 1 online resource (iii, 10 pages)
Series Title: Staff working paper (Bank of Canada), 2016-18.
Responsibility: by Christiane Baumeister, Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame, CEPR, and Lutz Kilian, Department of Economics, University of Michigan, CEPR.
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Abstract:

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset. Although this expectation in principle may be recovered by adjusting the futures price by the estimated risk premium, a common problem is that there are as many measures of the market expectation as there are estimates of the risk premium. We propose a general solution to this problem that allows us to select the most accurate estimate of the expectation for any set of risk premium estimates. We illustrate this approach by solving the long-standing problem of how to estimate the market expectation of the price of crude oil. We provide a new measure of oil price expectations that is substantially more accurate than the alternatives and more economically plausible. Our analysis has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting and for the measurement of oil price shocks.

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Primary Entity<\/h3>\n
<http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/951221902<\/a>> # A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Book<\/a>, schema:CreativeWork<\/a>, schema:MediaObject<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nlibrary:oclcnum<\/a> \"951221902<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nlibrary:placeOfPublication<\/a> <http:\/\/id.loc.gov\/vocabulary\/countries\/onc<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/economics<\/a>> ; # Economics<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/consumer_price_index<\/a>> ; # Consumer price index<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/accuracy_and_precision<\/a>> ; # Accuracy and precision<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/bond_finance<\/a>> ; # Bond (finance)<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/financial_economics<\/a>> ; # Financial economics<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/futures_market_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Futures market--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/prices<\/a>> ; # Prices<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/petroleum<\/a>> ; # Petroleum<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/economy<\/a>> ; # Economy<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/errors_and_residuals<\/a>> ; # Errors and residuals<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/statistical_analysis<\/a>> ; # Statistical analysis<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/finance<\/a>> ; # Finance<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/business_economics<\/a>> ; # Business economics<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/petroleum_products_prices_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Petroleum products--Prices--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/markets<\/a>> ; # Markets<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/economic_model<\/a>> ; # Economic model<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/dewey.info\/class\/332.64\/a15\/<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/produits_petroliers_prix_modeles_econometriques<\/a>> ; # Produits p\u00E9troliers--Prix--Mod\u00E8les \u00E9conom\u00E9triques<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/marches_a_terme_modeles_econometriques<\/a>> ; # March\u00E9s \u00E0 terme--Mod\u00E8les \u00E9conom\u00E9triques<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:author<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Person\/baumeister_christiane<\/a>> ; # Christiane Baumeister<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:bookFormat<\/a> schema:EBook<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:contributor<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Organization\/bank_of_canada<\/a>> ; # Bank of Canada,<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:copyrightYear<\/a> \"2016<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:datePublished<\/a> \"2016<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:description<\/a> \"Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset. Although this expectation in principle may be recovered by adjusting the futures price by the estimated risk premium, a common problem is that there are as many measures of the market expectation as there are estimates of the risk premium. We propose a general solution to this problem that allows us to select the most accurate estimate of the expectation for any set of risk premium estimates. We illustrate this approach by solving the long-standing problem of how to estimate the market expectation of the price of crude oil. We provide a new measure of oil price expectations that is substantially more accurate than the alternatives and more economically plausible. Our analysis has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting and for the measurement of oil price shocks.<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:exampleOfWork<\/a> <http:\/\/worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/id\/2219349239<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:genre<\/a> \"Electronic books<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:genre<\/a> \"Government publication<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:genre<\/a> \"National government publication<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:inLanguage<\/a> \"en<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:isPartOf<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Series\/staff_working_paper_bank_of_canada<\/a>> ; # Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:isPartOf<\/a> <http:\/\/worldcat.org\/issn\/1701-9397<\/a>> ; # Bank of Canada staff working paper,<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:productID<\/a> \"951221902<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <https:\/\/www.deslibris.ca\/ID\/10050461<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/epe.lac-bac.gc.ca\/100\/201\/301\/weekly_acquisitions_list-ef\/2016\/16-18\/publications.gc.ca\/collections\/collection_2016\/banque-bank-canada\/FB3-5-2016-18-eng.pdf<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/books.scholarsportal.info\/viewdoc.html?id=\/ebooks\/ebooks0\/gibson_cppc-chrc\/2017-10-02\/3\/10050461<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/oaresource.library.carleton.ca\/wcl\/2016\/20160527\/FB3-5-2016-18-eng.pdf<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <https:\/\/central.bac-lac.gc.ca\/.item?id=FB3-5-2016-18-eng&op=pdf&app=Library<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/publications.gc.ca\/collections\/collection_2016\/banque-bank-canada\/FB3-5-2016-18-eng.pdf<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nwdrs:describedby<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/title\/-\/oclc\/951221902<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n

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<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Organization\/bank_of_canada<\/a>> # Bank of Canada,<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Organization<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Bank of Canada,<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Person\/baumeister_christiane<\/a>> # Christiane Baumeister<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"Baumeister<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Christiane<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Christiane Baumeister<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Series\/staff_working_paper_bank_of_canada<\/a>> # Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nbgn:PublicationSeries<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:hasPart<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/951221902<\/a>> ; # A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Staff working paper (Bank of Canada) ;<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
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<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/bond_finance<\/a>> # Bond (finance)<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Bond (finance)<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/business_economics<\/a>> # Business economics<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Business economics<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/consumer_price_index<\/a>> # Consumer price index<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Consumer price index<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/economic_model<\/a>> # Economic model<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Economic model<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/economics<\/a>> # Economics<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Economics<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/economy<\/a>> # Economy<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Economy<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/errors_and_residuals<\/a>> # Errors and residuals<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Errors and residuals<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/finance<\/a>> # Finance<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Finance<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/financial_economics<\/a>> # Financial economics<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Financial economics<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/futures_market_econometric_models<\/a>> # Futures market--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Futures market--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/marches_a_terme_modeles_econometriques<\/a>> # March\u00E9s \u00E0 terme--Mod\u00E8les \u00E9conom\u00E9triques<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"March\u00E9s \u00E0 terme--Mod\u00E8les \u00E9conom\u00E9triques<\/span>\"@fr<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/markets<\/a>> # Markets<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Markets<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/petroleum<\/a>> # Petroleum<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Petroleum<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/petroleum_products_prices_econometric_models<\/a>> # Petroleum products--Prices--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Petroleum products--Prices--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/prices<\/a>> # Prices<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Prices<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/produits_petroliers_prix_modeles_econometriques<\/a>> # Produits p\u00E9troliers--Prix--Mod\u00E8les \u00E9conom\u00E9triques<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Produits p\u00E9troliers--Prix--Mod\u00E8les \u00E9conom\u00E9triques<\/span>\"@fr<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/2219349239#Topic\/statistical_analysis<\/a>> # Statistical analysis<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Statistical analysis<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/id.loc.gov\/vocabulary\/countries\/onc<\/a>>\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Place<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\ndcterms:identifier<\/a> \"onc<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/worldcat.org\/issn\/1701-9397<\/a>> # Bank of Canada staff working paper,<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nbgn:PublicationSeries<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:hasPart<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/951221902<\/a>> ; # A general approach to recovering market expectations from futures prices with an application to crude oil<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:issn<\/a> \"1701-9397<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Bank of Canada staff working paper,<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
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Content-negotiable representations<\/p>\n