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Global Economic Modeling.

Author: Peter Pauly
Publisher: Singapore : World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd, 2018.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : English
Summary:
"Global econometric models have a long history. From the early 1970s to the present, as modeling techniques have advanced, different modeling paradigms have emerged and been used to support national and international policy making. One purpose of this volume — based on a conference in recognition of the seminal impact of Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences Lawrence R Klein, whose pioneering work has spawned the  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Pauly, Peter.
Global Economic Modeling: a Volume in Honor of Lawrence R Klein.
Singapore : World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd, ©2018
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Peter Pauly
ISBN: 9789813220447 9813220449
OCLC Number: 1035517402
Description: 1 online resource (345 pages)
Contents: Intro; Contents; Introduction; I. International Econometric Modeling; "High-mixed-frequency forecasting models for GDP and inflation"; 1. Introduction; 2. Methodology for Dynamic Latent Factor Models with Mixed Frequencies (MDLFM); 3. Alternative Modeling Approaches; 3.1. Benchmark --
AR (p) and VAR (p); 3.2. Current Quarter Model (CQM): Bridge equations and principal components; 3.3. MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions; 4. Empirical Results for the Philippines; 5. Conclusion; References; "The use of models in macroeconomic forecasting at the OECD"; 1. Introduction. 2. The Forecasting Round3. The Role of Models; 3.1. Global macroeconomic models; 3.1.1. The role of the global model in assessing changes in 'forces acting' since the previous forecast; 3.1.2. The role of the global model in constructing alternative scenarios; 3.2. Financial Conditions Indices; 3.3. Now-casting models; 3.4. The forecast entry system; 3.5. The trade model and global consistency; 4. The Forecasting Track Record; 4.1. Forecast performance for the current year is much better than for the following year; 4.2. Current-year forecast performance has improved over time. 4.3. Forecasts are strikingly similar to the consensus and other international organizations4.4. Forecasts are still particularly vulnerable around major global shocks; 5. Concluding Remarks; References; "Reflections on global modeling: The state of the art"; 1. Introduction; 2. The Early Years; 3. Criticism and Decline; 4. Second-Generation Macro-Econometric Models; 4.1. DSGE models; 4.2. Vector-autoregressive models (VARs); 4.3. Co-integration and error correction; 4.4. A comparative assessment; 5. Where Do International Models Stand Now?; 5.1. International linkages; 5.1.1. Trade flows. 5.1.2. Capital flows, monetary linkages, and exchange rates5.1.3. Other linkages; 5.2. Global markets and commodities; 5.3. Forecast accuracy; 6. A Research Agenda; 6.1. Theory vs. relevance: Microfoundations; 6.2. Forecasting vs. policy analysis; 6.3. Policy design; 6.4. International policy coordination; 6.5. Broadening the scope; 7. Some Speculative Thoughts; 7.1. The strength of interdependencies; 7.2. Global systemic analysis; 7.3. Volatility and high-order moments; 7.4. Micro/Macro combination; 7.5. High-frequency information; 7.6. Agent-based models; 8. Summary; References. II. International Financial System"Mitigating the deadly embrace in financial cycles: Countercyclical buffers and loan-to-value limits"; 1. Introduction; 2. Macroprudential Regulations; 3. A Non-Technical Presentation of MAPMOD; 3.1. MAPMOD, Mark I; 3.2. MAPMOD, Mark II; 3.2.1. Partial equilibrium analysis for banks; 3.2.2. Partial equilibrium analysis for households; 3.2.3. Putting the pieces together: The general equilibrium story; 4. Macroprudential Policy to Mitigate the Deadly Embrace; 4.1. LTV limits; 4.2. CCBs; 4.3. A combination of LTV limits and CCBs; 5. Policy Conclusions. 6. Appendix I --
Basel III Regulations.

Abstract:

Economic and social development is and will be the main task in the long run in China, and development is the basis and key to solve the problems faced. Although people have been criticising its  Read more...

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