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The Great Wars, The Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis : Some New Evidence About an Old Stylized Fact

Author: Dan Ben-David; David H Papell
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1994.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. w4752.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
For decades, the prevailing sentiment among economists was that growth rates remain constant over the long run. Kaldor considered this to be one of the six important 'stylized facts' that theory should address, and until the emergence of endogenous growth models, this was a fundamental feature of growth theory. This paper uses an endogenous trend break model to investigate the unit root hypothesis for 16 countries,  Read more...
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Details

Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Dan Ben-David; David H Papell
OCLC Number: 1027282118
Notes: May 1994.
Description: 1 online resource.
Details: Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. w4752.
Responsibility: Dan Ben-David, David H. Papell.

Abstract:

For decades, the prevailing sentiment among economists was that growth rates remain constant over the long run. Kaldor considered this to be one of the six important 'stylized facts' that theory should address, and until the emergence of endogenous growth models, this was a fundamental feature of growth theory. This paper uses an endogenous trend break model to investigate the unit root hypothesis for 16 countries, using annual GDP data spanning up to 130 years. Rejection of the unit root, which is facilitated by the inclusion of a trend break, introduces the possibility of examining the long run behavior of growth rates. We find that most countries exhibited fairly steady growth for a period lasting several decades. The termination of this period was usually characterized by a significant, and sudden, drop in GDP levels. But rather than simply returning to their previous steady state path, as predicted by the standard neoclassical growth model, most countries continued to grow at roughly double their prebreak rates for many decades, even after their original growth path had been surpassed.

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Papell<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:creator<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Person\/ben_david_dan<\/a>> ; # Dan Ben-David<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:datePublished<\/a> \"1994<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:description<\/a> \"For decades, the prevailing sentiment among economists was that growth rates remain constant over the long run. Kaldor considered this to be one of the six important \'stylized facts\' that theory should address, and until the emergence of endogenous growth models, this was a fundamental feature of growth theory. This paper uses an endogenous trend break model to investigate the unit root hypothesis for 16 countries, using annual GDP data spanning up to 130 years. Rejection of the unit root, which is facilitated by the inclusion of a trend break, introduces the possibility of examining the long run behavior of growth rates. We find that most countries exhibited fairly steady growth for a period lasting several decades. The termination of this period was usually characterized by a significant, and sudden, drop in GDP levels. But rather than simply returning to their previous steady state path, as predicted by the standard neoclassical growth model, most countries continued to grow at roughly double their prebreak rates for many decades, even after their original growth path had been surpassed.<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:exampleOfWork<\/a> <http:\/\/worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/id\/792960141<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:inLanguage<\/a> \"en<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:isPartOf<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Series\/nber_working_paper_series<\/a>> ; # NBER working paper series<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:isPartOf<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Series\/working_paper_series_national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> ; # Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"The Great Wars, The Great Crash, and the Unit Root Hypothesis Some New Evidence About an Old Stylized Fact<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:productID<\/a> \"1027282118<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:publication<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/title\/-\/oclc\/1027282118#PublicationEvent\/cambridge_mass_national_bureau_of_economic_research1994<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:publisher<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Agent\/national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> ; # National Bureau of Economic Research<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/papers.nber.org\/papers\/w4752<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w4752<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nwdrs:describedby<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/title\/-\/oclc\/1027282118<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n

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<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Person\/ben_david_dan<\/a>> # Dan Ben-David<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"Ben-David<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Dan<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Dan Ben-David<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Person\/papell_david_h<\/a>> # David H. Papell<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"Papell<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"David H.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"David H. Papell<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Place\/cambridge_mass<\/a>> # Cambridge, Mass.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Place<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Cambridge, Mass.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Place\/mexico<\/a>> # Mexico.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Place<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Mexico.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
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<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Place\/united_states<\/a>> # United States.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Place<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"United States.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
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<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Topic\/commerce_econometric_models<\/a>> # Commerce--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Commerce--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Topic\/gross_domestic_product_growth_econometric_models<\/a>> # Gross domestic product--Growth--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Gross domestic product--Growth--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/792960141#Topic\/o40_general<\/a>> # O40 - General<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"O40 - General<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
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Content-negotiable representations<\/p>\n