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Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Author: Francisco Arizala; Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia; Charalambos G Tsangarides; Mustafa Yenice; International Monetary Fund. African Department,
Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, [2017] ©2017
Series: IMF working paper, WP/17/202.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This paper examines the growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since 1960 through the lens of growth turning points (accelerations and decelerations) and periods of sustained growth (growth spells). Growth accelerations are generally associated with improved external conditions, increased investment and trade openness, declines in inflation, better fiscal balances, and improvements in the institutional  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print Version:
Arizala, Francisco
Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,2017
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Francisco Arizala; Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia; Charalambos G Tsangarides; Mustafa Yenice; International Monetary Fund. African Department,
ISBN: 1484319583 9781484319581 1484314166 9781484314166
ISSN:1018-5941
OCLC Number: 1004537951
Description: 1 online resource (36 pages).
Contents: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Stylized Facts; A. Structural Breaks; B. Growth Spells; III. Data and Empirical Methodology; A. Determinants; B. Turning Points; C. Duration Analysis; IV. Turning Points; A. Changes During Turning Points; B. Summary View; V. Duration Analysis; A. Bivariate Approach; B. Multivariate Approach; VI. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. Figure 1: Sub-Saharan Africa Growth Spells; 2. Figure 2: Effects on Growth Spells; Tables; 1. Table 1: Selected Groups: Up-breaks and Down-breaks, 1950-2016. 2. Table 2: Change in Median Annual Per Capita Growth at Up-breaks and Down-breaks3. Table 3: Growth Spells, 1950-2016; 4. Table 4: Duration of Complete Spells, 1950-2016; 5. Table 5: Median Growth Before, During and After Completed Growth Spells; 6. Table 6: Changes in Macroeconomic Variables during Growth Breaks; 7. Table 7: Effects of Exogenous Factors on Growth Spells; 8. Table 8: Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Growth Spells; 9. Table 9: Effects of Institutional Variables on Growth Spells; 10. Table 10: Effects of Human Development Indicators on Growth Spells. 11. Table 11: Effects of Structural Transformation and Technology on Growth Spells12. Table 12: Multivariate Model of Effects on Growth Spells; 13. Table 13: Nested Models and Fit; 14. Table 14: Alternative Functional Forms; 15. Table 15: Alternative Model Specifications; Annex I: Variable List and Sources; Annex II: Breaks and Spells Stylized Facts with h = 8.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/17/202.

Abstract:

This paper examines the growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since 1960 through the lens of growth turning points (accelerations and decelerations) and periods of sustained growth (growth spells). Growth accelerations are generally associated with improved external conditions, increased investment and trade openness, declines in inflation, better fiscal balances, and improvements in the institutional environment. Transitioning from growth accelerations to growth spells often requires additional efforts beyond what is needed to trigger an acceleration. Growth spells are sustained by fiscal policy that prevents excessive public debt accumulation, monetary policy geared toward low inflation, outward-oriented trade policies, and structural policies that reduce market distortions, as well as supportive external environment and improvements in democratic institutions. Overall, determinants of growth spells in sub-Saharan Africa are different from those in the rest of the emerging and developing countries.

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