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Hysteresis in Unemployment : Old and New Evidence

Author: Laurence M Ball
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2009.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. w14818.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This paper argues that hysteresis helps explain the long-run behavior of unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment is influenced by the path of actual unemployment, and hence by shifts in aggregate demand. I review past evidence for hysteresis effects and present new evidence for 20 developed countries. A central finding is that large increases in the natural rate are associated with disinflations, and large  Read more...
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Details

Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Laurence M Ball
OCLC Number: 1027335113
Notes: March 2009.
Description: 1 online resource.
Details: Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. w14818.
Responsibility: Laurence M. Ball.

Abstract:

This paper argues that hysteresis helps explain the long-run behavior of unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment is influenced by the path of actual unemployment, and hence by shifts in aggregate demand. I review past evidence for hysteresis effects and present new evidence for 20 developed countries. A central finding is that large increases in the natural rate are associated with disinflations, and large decreases with run-ups in inflation. These facts are consistent with hysteresis theories and inconsistent with theories in which the natural rate is independent of aggregate demand.

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