skip to content
Covid-19 virus
COVID-19 Resources

Reliable information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) is available from the World Health Organization (current situation, international travel). Numerous and frequently-updated resource results are available from this WorldCat.org search. OCLC’s WebJunction has pulled together information and resources to assist library staff as they consider how to handle coronavirus issues in their communities.

Image provided by: CDC/ Alissa Eckert, MS; Dan Higgins, MAM
Identifying Confirmatory Bias in the Field : Evidence from a Poll of Experts Preview this item
ClosePreview this item
Checking...

Identifying Confirmatory Bias in the Field : Evidence from a Poll of Experts

Author: Rodney J Andrews; Trevon D Logan; Michael J Sinkey
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2012.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. w18064.
Edition/Format:   eBook : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Laboratory experiments have established the existence of cognitive biases, but their explanatory power in real-world economic settings has been difficult to measure. We estimate the extent of a cognitive bias, confirmatory bias, among experts in a real-world environment. In the Associated Press Top 25 College Football Poll expert pollsters are tasked with assessing team quality, and their beliefs are treated  Read more...
Rating:

(not yet rated) 0 with reviews - Be the first.

Subjects
More like this

Find a copy online

Links to this item

Find a copy in the library

&AllPage.SpinnerRetrieving; Finding libraries that hold this item...

Details

Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Rodney J Andrews; Trevon D Logan; Michael J Sinkey
OCLC Number: 1027369511
Notes: May 2012.
Description: 1 online resource.
Details: Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. w18064.
Responsibility: Rodney J. Andrews, Trevon D. Logan, Michael J. Sinkey.

Abstract:

Laboratory experiments have established the existence of cognitive biases, but their explanatory power in real-world economic settings has been difficult to measure. We estimate the extent of a cognitive bias, confirmatory bias, among experts in a real-world environment. In the Associated Press Top 25 College Football Poll expert pollsters are tasked with assessing team quality, and their beliefs are treated week-to-week with game results that serve as signals about an individual team's quality. We exploit the variation provided by actual game results relative to market expectations to develop a novel regression-discontinuity approach to identify confirmatory bias in this real-world setting. We construct a unique personally-assembled dataset that matches more than twenty years of individual game characteristics to poll results and betting market information, and show that teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations are exchangeable. The likelihood of winning the game, the average number of points scored by teams and their opponents, and even the average week of the season are no different between teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations. Pollsters, however, significantly upgrade their beliefs about a team's quality when a team slightly exceeds market expectations. The effects are sizeable-- nearly half of the voters in the poll rank a team one slot higher when they slightly exceed market expectations; one-fifth of the standard deviation in poll points in a given week can be attributed to confirmatory bias. This type of updating suggests that even when informed agents make repeated decisions they may act in a manner which is consistent with confirmatory bias.

Reviews

User-contributed reviews
Retrieving GoodReads reviews...
Retrieving DOGObooks reviews...

Tags

Be the first.
Confirm this request

You may have already requested this item. Please select Ok if you would like to proceed with this request anyway.

Linked Data


\n\n

Primary Entity<\/h3>\n
<http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/1027369511<\/a>> # Identifying Confirmatory Bias in the Field Evidence from a Poll of Experts<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:CreativeWork<\/a>, schema:Book<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nlibrary:oclcnum<\/a> \"1027369511<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nlibrary:placeOfPublication<\/a> <http:\/\/id.loc.gov\/vocabulary\/countries\/mau<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nlibrary:placeOfPublication<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Place\/cambridge_mass<\/a>> ; # Cambridge, Mass.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/n32_u_s_canada_1913<\/a>> ; # N32 - U.S.; Canada: 1913-<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/d03_behavioral_economics_underlying_principles<\/a>> ; # D03 - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/public_opinion_polls_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Public opinion polls--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/personal_equation_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Personal equation--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/d01_microeconomic_behavior_underlying_principles<\/a>> ; # D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/football_attitudes_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Football--Attitudes--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:bookFormat<\/a> schema:EBook<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:contributor<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Person\/logan_trevon_d<\/a>> ; # Trevon D. Logan<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:contributor<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Person\/sinkey_michael_j<\/a>> ; # Michael J. Sinkey<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:creator<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Person\/andrews_rodney_j<\/a>> ; # Rodney J. Andrews<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:datePublished<\/a> \"2012<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:description<\/a> \"Laboratory experiments have established the existence of cognitive biases, but their explanatory power in real-world economic settings has been difficult to measure. We estimate the extent of a cognitive bias, confirmatory bias, among experts in a real-world environment. In the Associated Press Top 25 College Football Poll expert pollsters are tasked with assessing team quality, and their beliefs are treated week-to-week with game results that serve as signals about an individual team\'s quality. We exploit the variation provided by actual game results relative to market expectations to develop a novel regression-discontinuity approach to identify confirmatory bias in this real-world setting. We construct a unique personally-assembled dataset that matches more than twenty years of individual game characteristics to poll results and betting market information, and show that teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations are exchangeable. The likelihood of winning the game, the average number of points scored by teams and their opponents, and even the average week of the season are no different between teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations. Pollsters, however, significantly upgrade their beliefs about a team\'s quality when a team slightly exceeds market expectations. The effects are sizeable-- nearly half of the voters in the poll rank a team one slot higher when they slightly exceed market expectations; one-fifth of the standard deviation in poll points in a given week can be attributed to confirmatory bias. This type of updating suggests that even when informed agents make repeated decisions they may act in a manner which is consistent with confirmatory bias.<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:exampleOfWork<\/a> <http:\/\/worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/id\/1110795647<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:inLanguage<\/a> \"en<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:isPartOf<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Series\/nber_working_paper_series<\/a>> ; # NBER working paper series ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:isPartOf<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Series\/working_paper_series_national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> ; # Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Identifying Confirmatory Bias in the Field Evidence from a Poll of Experts<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:productID<\/a> \"1027369511<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:publication<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/title\/-\/oclc\/1027369511#PublicationEvent\/cambridge_mass_national_bureau_of_economic_research_2012<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:publisher<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Agent\/national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> ; # National Bureau of Economic Research<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w18064<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nwdrs:describedby<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/title\/-\/oclc\/1027369511<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n

Related Entities<\/h3>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Agent\/national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> # National Bureau of Economic Research<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nbgn:Agent<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"National Bureau of Economic Research<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Person\/andrews_rodney_j<\/a>> # Rodney J. Andrews<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"Andrews<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Rodney J.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Rodney J. Andrews<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Person\/logan_trevon_d<\/a>> # Trevon D. Logan<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"Logan<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Trevon D.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Trevon D. Logan<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Person\/sinkey_michael_j<\/a>> # Michael J. Sinkey<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"Sinkey<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Michael J.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Michael J. Sinkey<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Place\/cambridge_mass<\/a>> # Cambridge, Mass.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Place<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Cambridge, Mass.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Series\/nber_working_paper_series<\/a>> # NBER working paper series ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nbgn:PublicationSeries<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:hasPart<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/1027369511<\/a>> ; # Identifying Confirmatory Bias in the Field Evidence from a Poll of Experts<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"NBER working paper series ;<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Series\/working_paper_series_national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> # Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nbgn:PublicationSeries<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:hasPart<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/1027369511<\/a>> ; # Identifying Confirmatory Bias in the Field Evidence from a Poll of Experts<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/d01_microeconomic_behavior_underlying_principles<\/a>> # D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/d03_behavioral_economics_underlying_principles<\/a>> # D03 - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"D03 - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/football_attitudes_econometric_models<\/a>> # Football--Attitudes--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Football--Attitudes--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/n32_u_s_canada_1913<\/a>> # N32 - U.S.; Canada: 1913-<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"N32 - U.S.; Canada: 1913-<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/personal_equation_econometric_models<\/a>> # Personal equation--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Personal equation--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Topic\/public_opinion_polls_econometric_models<\/a>> # Public opinion polls--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Public opinion polls--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/id.loc.gov\/vocabulary\/countries\/mau<\/a>>\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Place<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\ndcterms:identifier<\/a> \"mau<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/title\/-\/oclc\/1027369511<\/a>>\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \ngenont:InformationResource<\/a>, genont:ContentTypeGenericResource<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/1027369511<\/a>> ; # Identifying Confirmatory Bias in the Field Evidence from a Poll of Experts<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:dateModified<\/a> \"2019-09-13<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nvoid:inDataset<\/a> <http:\/\/purl.oclc.org\/dataset\/WorldCat<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/title\/-\/oclc\/1027369511#PublicationEvent\/cambridge_mass_national_bureau_of_economic_research_2012<\/a>>\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:PublicationEvent<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:location<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Place\/cambridge_mass<\/a>> ; # Cambridge, Mass.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:organizer<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/1110795647#Agent\/national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> ; # National Bureau of Economic Research<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:startDate<\/a> \"2012<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n

Content-negotiable representations<\/p>\n