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The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Author: Francisco Arizala; Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia; Charalambos G Tsangarides
Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2017.
Series: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper, no. 17/281.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : English
Summary:
This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Arizala, Francisco.
Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2017
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Francisco Arizala; Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia; Charalambos G Tsangarides
ISBN: 9781484333617 1484333616 148433311X 9781484333112
OCLC Number: 1020032956
Description: 1 online resource (33 pages).
Contents: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Data and Stylized Facts; A. Data; B. Stylized Facts; III. Empirical Methodology; A. Estimating Fiscal Multipliers; B. Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Consolidations; IV. The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Output; A. The Size of the Fiscal Multiplier; B. Fiscal Multipliers and Country Characteristics; C. Robustness; V. Fiscal Consolidations, Economic Activit y, and the Role of Mitigation Policies; A. How Much Does Fiscal Consolidation Hurt?; B. The Role of Policies and Macroeconomic Factors; C. Robustness; VI. Conclusions; References; Figures. 1. Figure 1: SSA and EMEDEV: Episodes of Commodity Revenue Decline2. Figure 2: SSA and EMEDEV: Spending-based Fiscal Consolidation Episodes; 3. Figure 3. Change in the Overall Fiscal Balance and Components: Spending-based Fiscal Consolidation Episodes; 4. Figure 4. SSA and Emerging and Developing Countries: Revenue-based Fiscal Consolidation Episodes; 5. Figure 5. SSA: Effect of Fiscal Polic yon Output; 6. Figure 6. SSA: Fiscal Multipliers during Periods of High and Low Growth; 7. Figure 7. SSA: Fiscal Multipliers during Periods of High and Low Governance Quality. 8. Figure 8. SSA: Fiscal Multipliers during Periods of High and Low Efficiency of Public Investment9. Figure 9. SSA: Impact of Spending Based Fiscal Consolidation on Economic Activity; 10. Figure 10. SSA: Impact of Investment, Consumption, and Revenue Based Consolidations on Output; 11. Figure 11. SSA: Impact of Tax-Based Consolidation on Economic Activity; 12. Figure 12. SSA: Impact of Fiscal Consolidations under Different Monetary Conditions; 13. Figure 13. SSA: Impact of Fiscal Consolidations in Different Debt Environment. 14. Figure 14. SSA: Impact of Fiscal Consolidations and Role of Exchange Rate Flexibility, International Reserves Buffers, and Openness to Trade15. Figure 15. Robustness Checks: Spending-based Consolidation; Tables; 1. Table 1. Variables and Sources; 2. Table 2. Estimated Fiscal Multipliers in the Literature; 3. Table 3. Comparison of Fiscal Multipliers.
Series Title: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper, no. 17/281.

Abstract:

This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.

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