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Low interest rates, market power, and productivity growth

Author: Ernest Liu; Atif Mian; Amir Sufi; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 25505.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
How does the production side of the economy respond to a low interest rate environment? This study provides a new theoretical result that low interest rates encourage market concentration by giving industry leaders a strategic advantage over followers, and this effect strengthens as the interest rate approaches zero. The model provides a unified explanation for why the fall in long-term interest rates has been  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Ernest Liu; Atif Mian; Amir Sufi; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 1085572600
Notes: "January 2019"
Description: 1 online resource (88 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 25505.
Responsibility: Ernest Liu, Atif Mian, Amir Sufi.

Abstract:

How does the production side of the economy respond to a low interest rate environment? This study provides a new theoretical result that low interest rates encourage market concentration by giving industry leaders a strategic advantage over followers, and this effect strengthens as the interest rate approaches zero. The model provides a unified explanation for why the fall in long-term interest rates has been associated with rising market concentration, reduced dynamism, a widening productivity-gap between industry leaders and followers, and slower productivity growth. Support for the model's key mechanism is established by showing that a decline in the ten year Treasury yield generates positive excess returns for industry leaders, and the magnitude of the excess returns rises as the Treasury yield approaches zero.

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