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The natural level of capital flows

Author: John D Burger; Francis E Warnock; Veronica C Warnock; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 26184.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
We put forward the notion that capital flows -- specifically, gross portfolio flows -- fluctuate around some natural level. Our particular measure of the natural level of capital flows, denoted by KF*, is a theory-based time-varying supply-side factor, much like potential GDP is a theory based time varying supply side measure of economic activity. We construct KF* for 184 countries and, for the subset of countries  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: John D Burger; Francis E Warnock; Veronica C Warnock; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 1114265674
Notes: "August 2019"
Description: 1 online resource (44 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 26184.
Responsibility: John D. Burger, Francis E. Warnock, Veronica Cacdac Warnock.

Abstract:

We put forward the notion that capital flows -- specifically, gross portfolio flows -- fluctuate around some natural level. Our particular measure of the natural level of capital flows, denoted by KF*, is a theory-based time-varying supply-side factor, much like potential GDP is a theory based time varying supply side measure of economic activity. We construct KF* for 184 countries and, for the subset of countries that have quarterly time series data of capital flows, we show that KF* is a level to which flows converge in the medium term. That is, KF* appears to help identify the underlying persistent component in gross portfolio inflows by differentiating between longer-term structural flows and short-term cyclical noise. Overall, we conclude that there is a natural level of capital flows that is well approximated by our measure of KF*.

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