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On escalation : metaphors and scenarios

Author: Herman Kahn; Thomas C Schelling
Publisher: New Brunswick (U.S.A.) ; London (U.K.) : Transaction Publishers, ©2010.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats

Probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrates how the intensification of conflict can be depicted by means of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of which brings opponents closer to all-out  Read more...


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Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Herman Kahn; Thomas C Schelling
ISBN: 9781412811620 1412811627
OCLC Number: 963532682
Description: XXVII, 308 p. ; 23 cm
Contents: Introduction to the Transaction Edition, Thomas C. SchellingForeword to the Paperback EditionAcknowledgmentsPrefaceI. INTRODUCTIONEscalation in BriefThe Strike and "Chicken" MetaphorsSources of Control and Cooperation in International SocietyThe Question of Who, Whom, and Why Some Examples of the Importance of Who, Whom, and WhyAn Example of Restraint and Negotiation in Total War (World War II)A "Standard Crisis" ScenarioII. THE RUNGS OF THE ESCALATION LADDERA Useful MetaphorDescription of the Rungs and ThresholdsSubcrisis ManeuveringTraditional Crises (The Boat Is Rocked)Intense Crises (The Unthinkable Nuclear War Becomes Credible)Bizarre Crises (Nuclear Weapons Are Used)Exemplary Central Attacks (Violating the Central Sanctuary-Nuclear Gunboat Diplomacy)Military Central Wars (The New Kind of All-Out War)Civilian Central Wars (Violation of the "No-City" Threshold)III. DISAGREEMENTS AND SUBCRISIS MANEUVERINGBasic Description and DefinitionThe Rungs of Subcrisis ManeuveringRung 1. Ostensible CrisisRung 2. Political, Economic, and Diplomatic GesturesRung 3. Solemn and Formal DeclarationsRationality-of-Irrationality and Committal StrategiesThe Rung 2 Escalation of the Summer of 1964IV. TRADITIONAL CRISESBasic Description and DefinitionThe Rungs of Traditional CrisesRung 4. Hardening of Positions-Confrontation of WillsRung 5. Show of ForceRung 6. Significant MobilizationRung 7. "Legal" Harassment-RetortionsRung 8. Harassing Acts of ViolenceRung 9. Dramatic Military ConfrontationsA Recent Example of a "Traditional Crisis" ScenarioV. INTENSE CRISESBasic Description and DefinitionThe Rungs of Intense CrisesRung 10. Provocative Breaking Off of Diplomatic RelationsRung 11. Super-Ready StatusRung 12. Large Conventional War (or Actions)Rung 13. Large Compound EscalationRung 14. Declaration of Limited Conventional WarRung 15. Barely Nuclear WarRung 16. Nuclear "Ultimatums"Rung 17. Limited Evacuation (Approximately 20 per cent)Rung 18. Spectacular Show or Demonstration of ForceRung 19. "Justifiable" Counterforce AttacksRung 20. "Peaceful" World-Wide Embargo or BlockadeVI. THE NUCLEAR THRESHOLDThe Saliency of the Nuclear ThresholdThe Nuclear Threshold as a Prototype RestraintThe Nuclear Consensus-An Example of Systems BargainingThe Considerations to Be ExaminedSome Disadvantages to the U.S.Pressures for Continued EscalationThe Immediate Consequences on the Wider Power BalanceEffects on Stability, the Arms Race, and Nuclear ProliferationSome Additional Arguments in Favor of a Breach of the Nuclear ThresholdRecapitulation and Concluding Remarks on Preserving the Nuclear ThresholdApplication of the "No Nuclear Use" Discussion to the Other Basic ThresholdsVII. BIZARRE CRISES AND EXEMPLARY CENTRAL ATTACKSBasic Description and DefinitionThe Rungs of Bizarre CrisesRung 21. Local Nuclear War-ExemplaryRung 22. Declaration of Limited Nuclear WarRung 23. Local Nuclear War-MilitaryRung 24. Unusual, Provocative, and Significant CountermeasuresRung 25. Evacuation (Approximately 70 per cent)The "Central Sanctuary" ThresholdThe Rungs of Exemplary Central AttacksRung 26. Demonstration Attack on Zone of InteriorRung 27. Exemplary Attack on MilitaryRung 28. Exemplary Attacks Against PropertyRung 29. Exemplary Attacks on PopulationRung 30. Complete Evacuation (Approximately 95 per cent)Rung 31. Reciprocal ReprisalsSome Comments on the Relative Technical Simplicity of Exemplary Central AttacksVIII. THE IMPORTANCE OF CRISES CONCEPTSA Serious Gap in Much Military Planning and DiscussionCrisis and Damage LimitationSeven Basic OptionsA Proposal for ABM DeploymentA Proposal for Evacuation PreparationsSome Pros and ConsConclusionIX. MILITARY AND CIVILIAN CENTRAL WARSBasic Description and DefinitionThe Rungs of Military Central WarsRung 32. Formal Declaration of "General" WarRung 33. Slow-Motion Counter-''Property" WarRung 34. Slow-Motion Counterforce WarRung 35. Constrained Force-Reduction SalvoRung 36. Constrained Disarming AttackRung 37. Counterforce-with-A voidance AttackRung 38. Unmodified Counterforce AttackThe Rungs of Civilian Central WarsRung 39. Slow-Motion Countercity WarRung 40. Countervalue SalvoRung 41. Augmented Disarming AttackRung 42. Civilian Devastation AttackRung 43. Some Other Kinds of Controlled General WarRung 44. Spasm or Insensate WarX. SOME COMMENTS ON "WAR-FIGHTING"The Current Neglect of Strategy and TacticsThe Need for Limited Objectives If Deterrence Fails, and the Consequent Central Role of "Negotiation"Bargaining in a Central WarThe Problem of the "Fog of War"XI. DEFECTS OF THE ESCALATION-LADDER METAPHORDiscontinuities in and Importance of Distance Between RungsCriteria for Evaluating the Position of RungsDynamics of EscalationThe Question of StyleObjections to the Upper RungsXII. DE-ESCALATION AND ITS AFTERMATHDe-escalation and Crisis TerminationApproaches to De-escalationEscape from Current "Costs"Insurance Against Further EscalationLearning to Cooperate (Systems Bargaining?)Setting Precedents (More Systems Bargaining?)War-Fighting or Hostile AspectsAn Aspect of Crisis ManagementA Special Kind of Conflict ManagementAftermaths of De-escalation from the Lower RungsAftermaths of De-escalation from the Upper RungsXIII. OTHER ASPECTs OF ESCALATION AND CRISESThe Problems and Value of "Conservative" BehaviorVarious Ways of Viewing Crises and EscalationStrategy and TacticsCrisis-Management ProblemsConflict Management, Crises, Escalation, and Arms ControlEuropean Defense Policy-A Suggestion for a Proportionate Nuclear Reprisal ForceHow Will Escalation Be Handled in the Twenty-First Century?APPENDIX. RELEVANT CONCEPTS AND LANGUAGE FOR THE DISCUSSION OF ESCALATIONINDEX
Responsibility: Herman Kahn ; with a new introduction by Thomas C. Schelling.


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-This [reissue of Kahn's On Thermonuclear War and On Escalation] could not come at a better time. Human nature has not made much moral progress since the end of the Third Reich but its very worst Read more...

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