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Optimal environmental targeting in the Amazon rainforest

Author: Juliano J Assunção; Robert McMillan; Joshua Murphy; Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 25636.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This paper sets out an empirically-driven approach for targeting environmental policies optimally in order to combat deforestation. We focus on the Amazon, the world's most extensive rainforest, where Brazil's federal government issued a "Priority List' of municipalities in 2008, to be targeted with more intense environmental monitoring and enforcement. In this setting, we first estimate the causal impact of the  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Juliano J Assunção; Robert McMillan; Joshua Murphy; Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 1089805581
Notes: "March 2019"
Description: 1 online resource (85 pages) : illustrations, maps.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 25636.
Responsibility: Juliano Assunção, Robert McMillan, Joshua Murphy, Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues.

Abstract:

This paper sets out an empirically-driven approach for targeting environmental policies optimally in order to combat deforestation. We focus on the Amazon, the world's most extensive rainforest, where Brazil's federal government issued a "Priority List' of municipalities in 2008, to be targeted with more intense environmental monitoring and enforcement. In this setting, we first estimate the causal impact of the Priority List on deforestation using "changes-in-changes' (Athey and Imbens, 2006), a flexible treatment effects estimation method, finding that it reduced deforestation by 40 percent and cut emissions by 39.5 million tons of carbon. Second, we develop a novel framework for computing targeted ex-post optimal blacklists. This involves a procedure for assigning municipalities to a counterfactual list that minimizes total deforestation subject to realistic resource constraints, drawing on the ex-post treatment effect estimates from the first part of the analysis. Accounting for spillovers, we show that the ex-post optimal list resulted in carbon emissions over 7.4 percent lower than the actual list, amounting to savings of more than $900 million, and emissions over 25 percent lower (on average) than a randomly selected list. The approach we propose is relevant for assessing both targeted counterfactual policies to reduce deforestation and quantifying the impacts of policy targeting more generally.

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Primary Entity<\/h3>\n
<http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/1089805581<\/a>> # Optimal environmental targeting in the Amazon rainforest<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:CreativeWork<\/a>, schema:Book<\/a>, schema:MediaObject<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nlibrary:oclcnum<\/a> \"1089805581<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nlibrary:placeOfPublication<\/a> <http:\/\/id.loc.gov\/vocabulary\/countries\/mau<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/environmental_policy_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Environmental policy--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/deforestation_government_policy_law_and_legislation_brazil_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Deforestation--Government policy--Law and legislation--Brazil--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/forest_conservation_amazon_river_region_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Forest conservation--Amazon River Region--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Place\/amazon_river_region<\/a>> ; # Amazon River Region.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/deforestation_amazon_river_region_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Deforestation--Amazon River Region--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Place\/brazil<\/a>> ; # Brazil.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/rain_forest_ecology_amazon_river_region_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Rain forest ecology--Amazon River Region--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/deforestation_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Deforestation--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:about<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/environmental_policy_brazil_econometric_models<\/a>> ; # Environmental policy--Brazil--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:author<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Person\/souza_rodrigues_eduardo<\/a>> ; # Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:author<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Person\/mcmillan_robert<\/a>> ; # Robert McMillan<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:author<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Person\/murphy_joshua<\/a>> ; # Joshua Murphy<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:author<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Person\/assuncao_juliano_j_juliano_junqueira<\/a>> ; # Juliano Junqueira Assun\u00E7\u00E3o<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:bookFormat<\/a> schema:EBook<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:datePublished<\/a> \"2019<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:description<\/a> \"This paper sets out an empirically-driven approach for targeting environmental policies optimally in order to combat deforestation. We focus on the Amazon, the world\'s most extensive rainforest, where Brazil\'s federal government issued a \"Priority List\' of municipalities in 2008, to be targeted with more intense environmental monitoring and enforcement. In this setting, we first estimate the causal impact of the Priority List on deforestation using \"changes-in-changes\' (Athey and Imbens, 2006), a flexible treatment effects estimation method, finding that it reduced deforestation by 40 percent and cut emissions by 39.5 million tons of carbon. Second, we develop a novel framework for computing targeted ex-post optimal blacklists. This involves a procedure for assigning municipalities to a counterfactual list that minimizes total deforestation subject to realistic resource constraints, drawing on the ex-post treatment effect estimates from the first part of the analysis. Accounting for spillovers, we show that the ex-post optimal list resulted in carbon emissions over 7.4 percent lower than the actual list, amounting to savings of more than $900 million, and emissions over 25 percent lower (on average) than a randomly selected list. The approach we propose is relevant for assessing both targeted counterfactual policies to reduce deforestation and quantifying the impacts of policy targeting more generally.<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:exampleOfWork<\/a> <http:\/\/worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/id\/9076088252<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:inLanguage<\/a> \"en<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:isPartOf<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Series\/nber_working_paper_series<\/a>> ; # NBER working paper series ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:isPartOf<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Series\/working_paper_series_national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> ; # Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Optimal environmental targeting in the Amazon rainforest<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:productID<\/a> \"1089805581<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:publisher<\/a> <http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Organization\/national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> ; # National Bureau of Economic Research,<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <https:\/\/prod.nber.org\/papers\/w25636<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.3386\/w25636<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/papers.nber.org\/papers\/25636<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:url<\/a> <http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w25636<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nwdrs:describedby<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/title\/-\/oclc\/1089805581<\/a>> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n

Related Entities<\/h3>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Organization\/national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> # National Bureau of Economic Research,<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Organization<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"National Bureau of Economic Research,<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Person\/assuncao_juliano_j_juliano_junqueira<\/a>> # Juliano Junqueira Assun\u00E7\u00E3o<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"Assun\u00E7\u00E3o<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Juliano Junqueira<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Juliano J.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Juliano Junqueira Assun\u00E7\u00E3o<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Person\/mcmillan_robert<\/a>> # Robert McMillan<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"McMillan<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Robert<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Robert McMillan<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Person\/murphy_joshua<\/a>> # Joshua Murphy<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"Murphy<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Joshua<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Joshua Murphy<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Person\/souza_rodrigues_eduardo<\/a>> # Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Person<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:familyName<\/a> \"Souza-Rodrigues<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:givenName<\/a> \"Eduardo<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Place\/amazon_river_region<\/a>> # Amazon River Region.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Place<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Amazon River Region.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Place\/brazil<\/a>> # Brazil.<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Place<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Brazil.<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Series\/nber_working_paper_series<\/a>> # NBER working paper series ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nbgn:PublicationSeries<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:hasPart<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/1089805581<\/a>> ; # Optimal environmental targeting in the Amazon rainforest<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"NBER working paper series ;<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Series\/working_paper_series_national_bureau_of_economic_research<\/a>> # Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nbgn:PublicationSeries<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:hasPart<\/a> <http:\/\/www.worldcat.org\/oclc\/1089805581<\/a>> ; # Optimal environmental targeting in the Amazon rainforest<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/deforestation_amazon_river_region_econometric_models<\/a>> # Deforestation--Amazon River Region--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Deforestation--Amazon River Region--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/deforestation_econometric_models<\/a>> # Deforestation--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Deforestation--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/deforestation_government_policy_law_and_legislation_brazil_econometric_models<\/a>> # Deforestation--Government policy--Law and legislation--Brazil--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Deforestation--Government policy--Law and legislation--Brazil--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/environmental_policy_brazil_econometric_models<\/a>> # Environmental policy--Brazil--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Environmental policy--Brazil--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/environmental_policy_econometric_models<\/a>> # Environmental policy--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Environmental policy--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/forest_conservation_amazon_river_region_econometric_models<\/a>> # Forest conservation--Amazon River Region--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Forest conservation--Amazon River Region--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/experiment.worldcat.org\/entity\/work\/data\/9076088252#Topic\/rain_forest_ecology_amazon_river_region_econometric_models<\/a>> # Rain forest ecology--Amazon River Region--Econometric models<\/span>\n\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Intangible<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\nschema:name<\/a> \"Rain forest ecology--Amazon River Region--Econometric models<\/span>\"@en<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n
<http:\/\/id.loc.gov\/vocabulary\/countries\/mau<\/a>>\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0a \nschema:Place<\/a> ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\ndcterms:identifier<\/a> \"mau<\/span>\" ;\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0\u00A0.\n\n\n<\/div>\n