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Practical policy evaluation

Author: Narayana Rao Kocherlakota; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2018.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 24643.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
In the wake of the Lucas Critique, the study of appropriate macroeconomic policy has largely focused on the comparison of different regimes/rules. In practice, few policymakers are faced with making those kinds of choices. In this paper, I examine the problem of a policymaker making but one in a long sequence of similar decisions (like to raise or cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point). I model the  Read more...
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Details

Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Narayana Rao Kocherlakota; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 1038050466
Notes: "May 2018"
Description: 1 online resource (48 pages).
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 24643.
Responsibility: Narayana R. Kocherlakota.

Abstract:

In the wake of the Lucas Critique, the study of appropriate macroeconomic policy has largely focused on the comparison of different regimes/rules. In practice, few policymakers are faced with making those kinds of choices. In this paper, I examine the problem of a policymaker making but one in a long sequence of similar decisions (like to raise or cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point). I model the policymaker as playing a dynamic game against a forward-looking private sector. My main result is that, under relatively weak conditions, the policymaker's optimal within-equilibrium response to the current state can be found by applying statistical regression methods to past macroeconomic data. Theory is only useful as a source of information about credible functional form restrictions on these regressions. Based on this result, I argue that macroeconomic policy evaluation intended to be of practical value should rely considerably less on putatively structural macroeconomic models and considerably more on regression-based approaches.

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