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The return to protectionism

Author: Pablo Fajgelbaum; Pinelopi K Goldberg; Patrick Kennedy; Amit Khandelwal; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 25638.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
We analyze the impacts of the 2018 trade war on the U.S. economy. We estimate import demand and export supply elasticities using changes in U.S. and retaliatory tariffs over time. Imports from targeted countries declined 31.5% within products, while targeted U.S. exports fell 11.0%. We find complete pass-through of U.S. tariffs to variety-level import prices. Using a general equilibrium framework that matches these  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Pablo Fajgelbaum; Pinelopi K Goldberg; Patrick Kennedy; Amit Khandelwal; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 1089834118
Notes: "March 2019"
Description: 1 online resource (33 pages, 37 unnumbered pages) : illustrations, maps.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 25638.
Responsibility: Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Patrick J. Kennedy, Amit K. Khandelwal.

Abstract:

We analyze the impacts of the 2018 trade war on the U.S. economy. We estimate import demand and export supply elasticities using changes in U.S. and retaliatory tariffs over time. Imports from targeted countries declined 31.5% within products, while targeted U.S. exports fell 11.0%. We find complete pass-through of U.S. tariffs to variety-level import prices. Using a general equilibrium framework that matches these elasticities, we compute the aggregate and regional impacts. Annual consumer and producer losses from higher costs of imports were $68.8 billion (0.37% of GDP). After accounting for higher tariff revenue and gains to domestic producers from higher prices, the aggregate welfare loss was $7.8 billion (0.04% of GDP). U.S. tariffs favored sectors located in politically competitive counties, but retaliatory tariffs offset the benefits to these counties. We find that tradeable-sector workers in heavily Republican counties were the most negatively affected by the trade war.

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