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Riding the credit boom

Author: Christopher HansmanHarrison G HongWenxi JiangYu-Jane LiuJuanjuan MengAll authors
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2018.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 24586.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Research on leverage and asset-price fluctuations focuses on the direct effect of lax bank lending enabling financially-constrained investors to take excessive risks. Ignored are unconstrained investors speculating on higher prices during credit booms. To identify these two effects, we utilize China's staggered liberalization of stock-margin lending from 2010-2015 -- which encouraged a bank/brokerage-credit-fueled  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Christopher Hansman; Harrison G Hong; Wenxi Jiang; Yu-Jane Liu; Juanjuan Meng; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 1035948814
Notes: "May 2018"
Description: 1 online resource (43 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 24586.
Responsibility: Christopher Hansman, Harrison Hong, Wenxi Jiang, Yu-Jane Liu, Juan-Juan Meng.

Abstract:

Research on leverage and asset-price fluctuations focuses on the direct effect of lax bank lending enabling financially-constrained investors to take excessive risks. Ignored are unconstrained investors speculating on higher prices during credit booms. To identify these two effects, we utilize China's staggered liberalization of stock-margin lending from 2010-2015 -- which encouraged a bank/brokerage-credit-fueled stock-market bubble. The direct effect is a 25 cent increase in a stock's market capitalization for each dollar of margin debt. Unconstrained investors led to an even larger increase in valuations of an additional 32 cents as they speculated on stocks likely to qualify for lending.

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