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Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models

Author: Alan Jones
Publisher: Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2019. ©2019
Series: Working guides to estimating & forecasting, volume V
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Jones, Alan (Alan R.), 1953-
Risk, opportunity, uncertainty and other random models.
Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2018
(DLC) 2017059096
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Alan Jones
ISBN: 9781315160030 131516003X 9781351661287 1351661280
OCLC Number: 1022077344
Description: 1 online resource (xxiii, 291 pages)
Contents: Cover; Title; Copyright; Dedication; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Foreword; 1 Introduction and objectives; 1.1 Why write this book? Who might find it useful? Why five volumes?; 1.1.1 Why write this series? Who might find it useful?; 1.1.2 Why five volumes?; 1.2 Features you'll find in this book and others in this series; 1.2.1 Chapter context; 1.2.2 The lighter side (humour); 1.2.3 Quotations; 1.2.4 Definitions; 1.2.5 Discussions and explanations with a mathematical slant for Formula-philes; 1.2.6 Discussions and explanations without a mathematical slant for Formula-phobes 1.2.7 Caveat augur1.2.8 Worked examples; 1.2.9 Useful Microsoft Excel functions and facilities; 1.2.10 References to authoritative sources; 1.2.11 Chapter reviews; 1.3 Overview of chapters in this volume; 1.4 Elsewhere in the 'Working Guide to Estimating & Forecasting' series; 1.4.1 Volume I: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling; 1.4.2 Volume II: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff; 1.4.3 Volume III: Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations; 1.4.4 Volume IV: Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves 1.4.5 Volume V: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models1.5 Final thoughts and musings on this volume and series; References; 2 Norden-Rayleigh Curves for solution development; 2.1 Norden-Rayleigh Curves: Who, what, where, when and why?; 2.1.1 Probability Density Function and Cumulative Distribution Function; 2.1.2 Truncation options; 2.1.3 How does a Norden-Rayleigh Curve differ from the Rayleigh Distribution?; 2.1.4 Some practical limitations of the Norden-Rayleigh Curve; 2.2 Breaking the Norden-Rayleigh 'Rules' 2.2.1 Additional objectives: Phased development (or the 'camelling')2.2.2 Correcting an overly optimistic view of the problem complexity: The Square Rule; 2.2.3 Schedule slippage due to resource ramp-up delays: The Pro Rata Product Rule; 2.2.4 Schedule slippage due to premature resource reduction; 2.3 Beta Distribution: A practical alternative to Norden-Rayleigh; 2.3.1 PERT-Beta Distribution: A viable alternative to Norden-Rayleigh?; 2.3.2 Resource profiles with Norden-Rayleigh Curves and Beta Distribution PDFs; 2.4 Triangular Distribution: Another alternative to Norden-Rayleigh 2.5 Truncated Weibull Distributions and their Beta equivalents2.5.1 Truncated Weibull Distributions for solution development; 2.5.2 General Beta Distributions for solution development; 2.6 Estimates to Completion with Norden-Rayleigh Curves; 2.6.1 Guess and Iterate Technique; 2.6.2 Norden-Rayleigh Curve fitting with Microsoft Excel Solver; 2.6.3 Linear transformation and regression; 2.6.4 Exploiting Weibull Distribution's double log linearisation constraint; 2.6.5 Estimates to Completion --
Review and conclusion; 2.7 Chapter review; References
Series Title: Working guides to estimating & forecasting, volume V
Responsibility: Alan R. Jones.

Abstract:

Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models goes part way to debunking the myth that research and development cost are somewhat random, as under certain conditions they can be observed to follow a pattern of behaviour referred to as a Norden-Rayleigh Curve, which unfortunately has to be truncated to stop the myth from becoming a reality! However, there is a practical alternative in relation to a particular form of PERT-Beta Curve. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering.

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"In the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting Alan has managed to capture the full spectrum of relevant topics with simple explanations, practical examples and academic rigor, while injecting Read more...

 
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