Shock to the system : coups, elections, and war on the road to democratization (Book, 2021) [WorldCat.org]
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Shock to the system : coups, elections, and war on the road to democratization
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Shock to the system : coups, elections, and war on the road to democratization

Author: Michael Keith Miller
Publisher: Princeton, New Jersey : Princeton University Press, 2021 ©2021
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
"How do democracies emerge? Shock to the System presents a novel theory of democratization that focuses on how events like coups, wars, and elections disrupt autocratic regimes and trigger democratic change. Employing the broadest qualitative and quantitative analyses of democratization to date, Michael Miller demonstrates that more than nine in ten transitions since 1800 occur in one of two ways: countries  Read more...
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Details

Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Michael Keith Miller
ISBN: 9780691217000 0691217009 9780691217598 0691217599
OCLC Number: 1201301098
Description: x, 348 pages : illustrations, charts ; 25 cm
Contents: Machine generated contents note: ch. 1 Introduction --
Overview of the Book's Theory --
Contributions to Literature and Implications --
Methodology and Inference --
Plan of the Book --
ch. 2 Two Paths to Democratization --
Defining Democracy --
Defining the Paths --
Theory: No Disruption, No Democracy --
A Two-Step Theory: Disruption and Democratization --
ch. 3 Domestic Shocks --
Coups --
Civil Wars --
Assassinations --
ch. 4 International Shocks --
Defeat in Foreign War --
Withdrawal of an Autocratic Hegemon --
ch. 5 Electoral Continuity --
Background --
Electoral Continuity Cases --
Path to Democratization --
Electoral Confidence and Democratization --
ch. 6 Other Autocracies --
Outlier Transitions --
Negative Cases: Patterns of Non-Democratization --
ch. 7 Direct Effects of the Paths --
Predictions --
Empirical Setup --
Empirical Results --
ch. 8 Mediated Effects of the Paths --
Predictions --
Mediation, Moderation, and Democratization --
The Paths, Pro-Democratic Activity, and Democratization --
Structural Factors and Democratization: A New Empirical Framework --
The Paths' Predictive Power --
ch. 9 The Paths and Democratic Survival --
Legacies of Transition: Democratic Survival and Quality --
Empirical Results --
ch. 10 Conclusion --
Theoretical Contributions --
Implications --
The Future of Democracy --
Appendix --
List of Democratic Transitions by Paths --
Coding Details --
Case Narratives.
Responsibility: Michael K. Miller.

Abstract:

"How do democracies emerge? Shock to the System presents a novel theory of democratization that focuses on how events like coups, wars, and elections disrupt autocratic regimes and trigger democratic change. Employing the broadest qualitative and quantitative analyses of democratization to date, Michael Miller demonstrates that more than nine in ten transitions since 1800 occur in one of two ways: countries democratize following a major violent shock or an established ruling party democratizes through elections and regains power within democracy. This framework fundamentally reorients theories on democratization by showing that violent upheavals and the preservation of autocrats in power--events typically viewed as antithetical to democracy--are in fact central to its foundation. Through in-depth examinations of 139 democratic transitions, Miller shows how democratization frequently follows both domestic shocks (coups, civil wars, and assassinations) and international shocks (defeat in war and withdrawal of an autocratic hegemon) due to autocratic insecurity and openings for opposition actors. He also shows how transitions guided by ruling parties spring from their electoral confidence in democracy. Both contexts limit the power autocrats sacrifice by accepting democratization, smoothing along the transition. Miller provides new insights into democratization's predictors, the limited gains from events like the Arab Spring, the best routes to democratization for long-term stability, and the future of global democracy. Disputing commonly held ideas about violent events and their effects on democracy, Shock to the System offers new perspectives on how regimes are transformed." --

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