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Simulating societal change : counterfactual modelling for social and policy inquiry

Author: Peter Davis; Roy Lay-Yee
Publisher: Cham, Switzerland : Springer, [2019]
Series: Computational social sciences.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:

This book presents a method for creating a working model of society, using data systems and simulation techniques, that can be used for testing propositions of scientific and policy nature. Readers  Read more...

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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: (OCoLC)1057742987
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Peter Davis; Roy Lay-Yee
ISBN: 9783030047863 3030047865
OCLC Number: 1083273817
Description: 1 online resource
Contents: Intro; Statistics New Zealand Disclaimer; Acknowledgments; Contents; Chapter 1: Introduction; Quantitative and Computational Techniques; Sociology as a Population and Policy Science; New Zealand: A Social Laboratory?; A Period of Rapid Social and Economic Change; The New Zealand Longitudinal Census; SociaLab, Our Inquiry Tool; Conclusion; References; Chapter 2: Conceptual and Analytical Foundations; Societal Change as the Starting Point; But Building "from the Bottom Up"; Concepts of the Middle Range; The Life Course as a Key Organising Concept But Identifying Social Mechanisms and Social Assets as WellStructure and Agency; Conclusion; References; Chapter 3: SociaLab: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model; The Field of Social Simulation; Agent-Based Modelling and Microsimulation; From Static to Dynamic; Framework and Components; Estimation Procedure; Implementing SociaLab; Conclusion; References; Chapter 4: Tracking Societal Change: Its Major Components; The Life Course: Seven Stages; The Era: "Decade of Deregulation"; The Cohort: The Baby Boomer Generation; Life Course, Cohort, and Era; The Role of the Causal Pathway Describing or Explaining Societal Change?Conclusion; References; Chapter 5: Data Preparation; The Information Framework; The Data Laboratory; The Longitudinal Census; The COMPASS Portfolio; Census Data; Harmonisation and Imputation; Creating a Starting Sample; Creating an Analytical Sample for the Main Module; Creating an Analytical Sample for the Population Dynamics Module; Conclusion; References; Chapter 6: Statistical Analysis; The "Main" Module: Analytical Framework; The "Main" Module: Modelling Social Mechanisms; The "Main" Module: Estimating Life Transitions The "Population Dynamics" Module: Accounting for Population DynamicsDeath; Emigration; Immigration; Birth; Projection into the Future; Conclusion; References; Chapter 7: Simulation; Base Simulation: Main Module; Impact of Population Dynamics; Death; Emigration; Immigration; Birth; Calibration, Alignment, and Validation; Projection and Scenario Testing; The Simario/Shiny Tool; Conclusion; References; Chapter 8: The "Seven Ages": A Framework for Social and Policy Issues; Early Childhood: Health and Thriving (0-4 Years); Childhood and Early Adolescence: Education and Readiness for Life (5-14) Youth and Emergent Adulthood: Gaining and Keeping Employment (15-20)Transition to Adulthood: Settling into Stable Partnership (20-29); Middle Adulthood: Successfully Raising Families (30-54); Older Life: Retirement and Successful Ageing (55-74); Later Life: The Risks of Dependency (75+); Conclusion; References; Chapter 9: Tracking Societal Change: Descriptive Results; Simulating Societal Change; Overall Trends; Gender Comparisons; Ethnic Comparisons; Age-Group Comparisons; Conclusion; References; Chapter 10: "What If?": Counterfactual Modelling with SociaLab
Series Title: Computational social sciences.
Responsibility: Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee.

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