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The Size and Destination of China's Portfolio Outflows

Author: Rose Cunningham; Eden Hatzvi; Kun Mo
Publisher: Ottawa, ON, CA : Bank of Canada, 2018.
Series: Staff Discussion Paper/Document d'analyse du personnel, 2018-11.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : National government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
"The size of China's financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what size and direction of China's overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows. In such a scenario, China's holdings of  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document, Government publication, National government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Rose Cunningham; Eden Hatzvi; Kun Mo
OCLC Number: 1057850841
Language Note: Includes abstracts in English and French.
Description: 1 online resource (36 pages).
Series Title: Staff Discussion Paper/Document d'analyse du personnel, 2018-11.
Responsibility: Rose Cunningham.
More information:

Abstract:

"The size of China's financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what size and direction of China's overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows. In such a scenario, China's holdings of overseas portfolio assets would have been between US$1.5 trillion and US$3.2 trillion (13 to 29 per cent of Chinese GDP), or 5 to 12 times its actual holdings of US$281 billion. Our model estimates that these additional holdings would have been predominantly directed to the world's deepest financial markets, especially the United States, while emerging-market economies would have received little additional portfolio investment. These results suggest that the liberalization of Chinese portfolio outflows may not prove disruptive to the global financial system, although it could have important implications for China."

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