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Sluggish forecasts

Author: Monica Jain; Bank of Canada.
Publisher: [Ottawa] : Bank of Canada, 2018.
Series: Staff working paper (Bank of Canada), 2018-39.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : National government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
"Given the influence that agents' expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents' "true" expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Using individual-level data on 29 U.S. professional forecasters from the Survey  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Material Type: Document, Government publication, National government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Monica Jain; Bank of Canada.
OCLC Number: 1051178824
Language Note: Includes abstract in French.
Notes: "August 2018."
Description: 1 online resource (ii, 26 pages) : color charts.
Series Title: Staff working paper (Bank of Canada), 2018-39.
Responsibility: by Monica Jain.
More information:

Abstract:

"Given the influence that agents' expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents' "true" expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Using individual-level data on 29 U.S. professional forecasters from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, I find that some degree of sluggishness is present in about 40% of inflation forecasts and in 60% of real GDP growth forecasts. The estimates of sluggishness are then used to recover a series of sluggishness-adjusted expectations that are more volatile and, at times, more accurate than the raw survey forecasts"--Abstract, p. ii.

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