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A structural interpretation of the recent weakness in business investment

Author: Russell Barnett; Rhys R Mendes; Bank of Canada.
Publisher: Ottawa : Bank of Canada, ©2017.
Series: Staff analytical note, 2017-7.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : National government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
"Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter  Read more...
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Details

Material Type: Document, Government publication, National government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Russell Barnett; Rhys R Mendes; Bank of Canada.
ISSN:2369-9639
OCLC Number: 1018284941
Language Note: Text in English; abstract in English and French.
Notes: Cover title.
Description: 1 online resource (iv, 14 pages) : graphs.
Series Title: Staff analytical note, 2017-7.
Responsibility: by Russell Barnett and Rhys Mendes.
More information:

Abstract:

"Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions. In contrast, our analysis suggests that structural factors could provide an alternative explanation for the observed weakness in Canadian business investment. As a result, there is a risk that this weakness could prove to be much more persistent than cyclical interpretations suggest. Overall, population aging combined with two factors that could prove to be structural--weak productivity growth and the 2014-15 collapse in oil prices--could plausibly reduce the investment-to-output ratio by as much as 2 percentage points by 2020 relative to the average of 12 per cent observed since 2000, or an additional 0.9 percentage points relative to its 2016 value. This would have important implications for the economic outlook."--Abstract, p. iii.

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