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E-mail Message: I thought you might be interested in this item at http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/26404124 Title: Technological forecasting for decision making Author: Joseph P Martino Publisher: New York : McGraw-Hill, ©1993. ISBN/ISSN: 0070407770 9780070407770 OCLC:26404124

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Technological forecasting for decision making

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Technological forecasting for decision making

Author:	Joseph P Martino
Publisher:	New York : McGraw-Hill, ©1993.
Series:	McGraw-Hill engineering and technology management series.
Edition/Format:	Print book : English : 3rd edView all editions and formats
Summary:	Designed for engineers and managers in industry and manufacturing, this book describes methods for estimating the future performance of a new technology, or the likely extent of its use.
Rating:	(not yet rated) 0 with reviews - Be the first.
Subjects	Technological forecasting. Decision making. Entscheidungstheorie. View all subjects
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Additional Physical Format:	Online version: Martino, Joseph Paul, 1931- Technological forecasting for decision making. New York : McGraw-Hill, ©1993 (OCoLC)622689749
Document Type:	Book
All Authors / Contributors:	Joseph P Martino Find more information about:
ISBN:	0070407770 9780070407770
OCLC Number:	26404124
Description:	xvi, 462 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm + 2 computer discs (3 1/2-5 1/4 in.).
Details:	System requirements for computer disks: IBM-compatible PC; 256K RAM; MS-DOS.
Contents:	Ch. 1. Introduction -- 1.1. What is Technological Forecasting? -- 1.2. Why Forecast Technology? -- 1.3. Alternatives to Forecasting -- 1.4. Will It Come True? -- 1.5. Stages of Innovation -- 1.6. Methods of Forecasting -- 1.7. Computer Programs -- 1.8. Remainder of the Book -- Ch. 2. Delphi -- 2.2. Advantages of Committees -- 2.3. Disadvantages of Committees -- 2.4. The Delphi Procedure -- 2.5. Conducting a Delphi Sequence -- 2.6. Variations on Delphi -- 2.7. Guidelines for Conducting a Delphi Sequence -- 2.8. Selecting Delphi Panel Members -- 2.9. Constructing Delphi Event Statements -- 2.10. Manipulation of Delphi Results -- 2.11. Using TEKFOR -- Ch. 3. Forecasting by Analogy -- 3.2. Problems with Analogies -- 3.3. Dimensions of Analogies -- 3.4. Selecting Analogous Technologies -- 3.5. Deviations from a Formal Analogy -- Ch. 4. Growth Curves -- 4.2. Substitution Curves -- 4.3. Using Growth Curves -- 4.4. The Pearl Curve -- 4.5. The Gompertz Curve -- 4.6. Comparison of the Pearl and Gompertz Curves -- 4.7. Other Grown Curves -- 4.8. Estimating the Upper Limit -- 4.9. Selecting Variables for Substitution Curves -- 4.10. An Example of a Forecast -- Ch. 5. Trend Extrapolation -- 5.2. Exponential Trends -- 5.3. An Example of a Forecast -- 5.4. A Model for Exponential Growth -- 5.5. Qualitative Trends -- 5.6. A Behavioral Technology -- Ch. 6. Measures of Technology -- 6.2. Scoring Models -- 6.3. Constrained Scoring Models -- 6.4. Technology Frontiers -- 6.5. Planar Technology Frontiers -- 6.6. Ellipsoidal Technology Frontiers -- Ch. 7. Correlation Methods -- 7.2. Lead-Lag Correlation -- 7.3. Technological Progress Function -- 7.4. Maximum Installation Size -- 7.5. Correlation with Economic Factors -- 7.6. Stages of Development -- 7.7. Patents as Leading Indicators -- Ch. 8. Causal Models -- 8.2. Technology-Only Models -- 8.3. Techno-Economic Models -- 8.4. Economic and Social Models -- 8.5. Model Construction -- Ch. 9. Probabilistic Methods -- 9.2. The Distribution of Discoveries -- 9.3. A Probabilistic Biological Analogy -- 9.4. Stochastic Projection -- 9.5. Distribution of Time Lags -- 9.6. Stochastic Cellular Automata -- Appendix 9A Program Listing for Competitive Substitution -- Appendix 9B The Neider-Mead Algorithm -- Appendix 9C Approximating Probability Distributions -- Ch. 10. Environmental Monitoring -- 10.2. Examples of Breakthroughs -- 10.3. The Process of Monitoring -- 10.4. Where to Look for Clues -- 10.5. Examples from the Automotive Industry -- 10.6. Organizing for Monitoring -- Ch. 11. Combining Forecasts -- 11.2. Trend and Growth Curves -- 11.3. Trend and Analogy -- 11.4. Components and Aggregates -- 11.5. Scenarios -- 11.6. Cross-Impact Models -- 11.7. Model Construction -- Ch. 12. Normative Methods -- 12.2. Relevance Trees -- 12.3. Morphological Models -- 12.4. Mission Flow Diagrams -- 12.5. Goals -- Ch. 13. Planning and Decision Making -- 13.2. The Purpose of Planning -- 13.3. The Role of the Forecast -- 13.4. Decision Making -- Ch. 14. Technological Forecasting for Research and Development Planning -- 14.2. Research -- 14.3. Technology Advancement -- 14.4. Product Development -- 14.5. Testing and Evaluation -- Ch. 15. Technological Forecasting in Business Decisions -- 15.2. What Business Are We In? -- 15.3. Business Planning for Technological Change -- 15.4. Market Share during Transition from Old to New Technology -- 15.5. Anticipating New Technologies -- 15.6. R&D Strategy -- Ch. 16. Technological Forecasting in Government Planning -- 16.2. National Defense -- 16.3. Internal Operations of Government -- 16.4. Regulatory Agencies -- 16.5. Public Goods -- Ch. 17. Technology Assessment -- 17.2. Some Historical Cases -- 17.3. The Role of Technological Forecasting -- 17.4. An Example -- Ch. 18. Some Common Forecasting Mistakes -- 18.2. Environmental Factors that Affect Forecasts -- 18.3. Personal Factors that Affect Forecasts -- 18.4. Core Assumptions -- Ch. 19. Evaluating Forecasts as Decision Information -- 19.2. The Interrogation Model -- Ch. 20. Presenting the Forecast -- 20.2. Making the Forecast Useful -- 20.3. Making the Forecast Credible -- 20.4. A Checklist for Forecasts -- Appendix A. Historical Data Tables -- Appendix B. Precursor Events in Several Technologies -- Appendix C. User's Guide to TEKFOR -- Appendix D. User's Guide to MAXIM -- Appendix E. Uniformly Distributed Random Numbers.
Series Title:	McGraw-Hill engineering and technology management series.
Responsibility:	Joseph P. Martino.

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