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Technological forecasting for decision making

Author: Joseph P Martino
Publisher: New York : McGraw-Hill, ©1993.
Series: McGraw-Hill engineering and technology management series.
Edition/Format:   Print book : English : 3rd edView all editions and formats
Summary:

Designed for engineers and managers in industry and manufacturing, this book describes methods for estimating the future performance of a new technology, or the likely extent of its use.

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Additional Physical Format: Online version:
Martino, Joseph Paul, 1931-
Technological forecasting for decision making.
New York : McGraw-Hill, ©1993
(OCoLC)622689749
Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Joseph P Martino
ISBN: 0070407770 9780070407770
OCLC Number: 26404124
Description: xvi, 462 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm + 2 computer discs (3 1/2-5 1/4 in.).
Details: System requirements for computer disks: IBM-compatible PC; 256K RAM; MS-DOS.
Contents: Ch. 1. Introduction --
1.1. What is Technological Forecasting? --
1.2. Why Forecast Technology? --
1.3. Alternatives to Forecasting --
1.4. Will It Come True? --
1.5. Stages of Innovation --
1.6. Methods of Forecasting --
1.7. Computer Programs --
1.8. Remainder of the Book --
Ch. 2. Delphi --
2.2. Advantages of Committees --
2.3. Disadvantages of Committees --
2.4. The Delphi Procedure --
2.5. Conducting a Delphi Sequence --
2.6. Variations on Delphi --
2.7. Guidelines for Conducting a Delphi Sequence --
2.8. Selecting Delphi Panel Members --
2.9. Constructing Delphi Event Statements --
2.10. Manipulation of Delphi Results --
2.11. Using TEKFOR --
Ch. 3. Forecasting by Analogy --
3.2. Problems with Analogies --
3.3. Dimensions of Analogies --
3.4. Selecting Analogous Technologies --
3.5. Deviations from a Formal Analogy --
Ch. 4. Growth Curves --
4.2. Substitution Curves --
4.3. Using Growth Curves --
4.4. The Pearl Curve --
4.5. The Gompertz Curve --
4.6. Comparison of the Pearl and Gompertz Curves --
4.7. Other Grown Curves --
4.8. Estimating the Upper Limit --
4.9. Selecting Variables for Substitution Curves --
4.10. An Example of a Forecast --
Ch. 5. Trend Extrapolation --
5.2. Exponential Trends --
5.3. An Example of a Forecast --
5.4. A Model for Exponential Growth --
5.5. Qualitative Trends --
5.6. A Behavioral Technology --
Ch. 6. Measures of Technology --
6.2. Scoring Models --
6.3. Constrained Scoring Models --
6.4. Technology Frontiers --
6.5. Planar Technology Frontiers --
6.6. Ellipsoidal Technology Frontiers --
Ch. 7. Correlation Methods --
7.2. Lead-Lag Correlation --
7.3. Technological Progress Function --
7.4. Maximum Installation Size --
7.5. Correlation with Economic Factors --
7.6. Stages of Development --
7.7. Patents as Leading Indicators --
Ch. 8. Causal Models --
8.2. Technology-Only Models --
8.3. Techno-Economic Models --
8.4. Economic and Social Models --
8.5. Model Construction --
Ch. 9. Probabilistic Methods --
9.2. The Distribution of Discoveries --
9.3. A Probabilistic Biological Analogy --
9.4. Stochastic Projection --
9.5. Distribution of Time Lags --
9.6. Stochastic Cellular Automata --
Appendix 9A Program Listing for Competitive Substitution --
Appendix 9B The Neider-Mead Algorithm --
Appendix 9C Approximating Probability Distributions --
Ch. 10. Environmental Monitoring --
10.2. Examples of Breakthroughs --
10.3. The Process of Monitoring --
10.4. Where to Look for Clues --
10.5. Examples from the Automotive Industry --
10.6. Organizing for Monitoring --
Ch. 11. Combining Forecasts --
11.2. Trend and Growth Curves --
11.3. Trend and Analogy --
11.4. Components and Aggregates --
11.5. Scenarios --
11.6. Cross-Impact Models --
11.7. Model Construction --
Ch. 12. Normative Methods --
12.2. Relevance Trees --
12.3. Morphological Models --
12.4. Mission Flow Diagrams --
12.5. Goals --
Ch. 13. Planning and Decision Making --
13.2. The Purpose of Planning --
13.3. The Role of the Forecast --
13.4. Decision Making --
Ch. 14. Technological Forecasting for Research and Development Planning --
14.2. Research --
14.3. Technology Advancement --
14.4. Product Development --
14.5. Testing and Evaluation --
Ch. 15. Technological Forecasting in Business Decisions --
15.2. What Business Are We In? --
15.3. Business Planning for Technological Change --
15.4. Market Share during Transition from Old to New Technology --
15.5. Anticipating New Technologies --
15.6. R&D Strategy --
Ch. 16. Technological Forecasting in Government Planning --
16.2. National Defense --
16.3. Internal Operations of Government --
16.4. Regulatory Agencies --
16.5. Public Goods --
Ch. 17. Technology Assessment --
17.2. Some Historical Cases --
17.3. The Role of Technological Forecasting --
17.4. An Example --
Ch. 18. Some Common Forecasting Mistakes --
18.2. Environmental Factors that Affect Forecasts --
18.3. Personal Factors that Affect Forecasts --
18.4. Core Assumptions --
Ch. 19. Evaluating Forecasts as Decision Information --
19.2. The Interrogation Model --
Ch. 20. Presenting the Forecast --
20.2. Making the Forecast Useful --
20.3. Making the Forecast Credible --
20.4. A Checklist for Forecasts --
Appendix A. Historical Data Tables --
Appendix B. Precursor Events in Several Technologies --
Appendix C. User's Guide to TEKFOR --
Appendix D. User's Guide to MAXIM --
Appendix E. Uniformly Distributed Random Numbers.
Series Title: McGraw-Hill engineering and technology management series.
Responsibility: Joseph P. Martino.

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