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This time is different : eight centuries of financial folly

Author: Carmen M Reinhart; Kenneth S Rogoff
Publisher: Princeton : Princeton University Press, ©2009.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Case studies
Geschiedenis (vorm)
Casestudies (vorm)
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Reinhart, Carmen M.
This time is different.
Princeton : Princeton University Press, ©2009
(DLC) 2009022616
(OCoLC)317923342
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Carmen M Reinhart; Kenneth S Rogoff
ISBN: 9781400831968 1400831962 9780691142166 0691142165 9781400831722 1400831725 9786612608179 661260817X 9781400841127 1400841127
OCLC Number: 659564035
Reproduction Notes: Electronic reproduction. [S.l.] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2011. MiAaHDL
Awards: Winner of the 2010 TIAA-CREF Paul A. Samuelson Award
Association of American Publishers PROSE Award, 2009.
Description: 1 online resource (xlv, 463 pages) : illustrations
Details: Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.
Contents: List of tables --
List of figures --
List of boxes --
Preface --
Acknowledgments --
Preamble : some initial intuitions on financial fragility and the fickle nature of confidence --
pt. I. Financial crises : an operational primer --
1. Varieties of crises and their dates --
Crises defined by quantitative thresholds : inflation, currency crashes, and debasement --
Crises defined by events : banking crises and external and domestic default --
Other key concepts --
2. Debt intolerance : the genesis of serial default --
Debt thresholds --
Measuring vulnerability --
Clubs and regions --
Reflections on debt intolerance --
3. A global database on financial crises with a long-term view --
Prices, exchange rates, currency debasement, and real GDP --
Government finances and national accounts --
Public debt and its composition --
Global variables --
Country coverage --
pt. II. Sovereign external debt crises --
4. A digression on the theoretical underpinnings of debt crises --
Sovereign lending --
Illiquidity versus insolvency --
Partial default and rescheduling --
Odious debt --
Domestic public debt --
Conclusions --
5. Cycles of sovereign default on external debt --
Recurring patterns --
Default and banking crises --
Default and inflation --
Global factors and cycles of global external default --
The duration of default episodes --
6. External default through history --
The early history of serial default : emerging Europe, 1300--1799 --
Capital inflows and default : an "old world" story --
External sovereign default after 1800 : a global picture. pt. III. The forgotten history of domestic debt and default --
7. The stylized facts of domestic debt and default --
Domestic and external debt --
Maturity, rates of return, and currency composition --
Episodes of domestic default --
Some caveats regarding domestic debt --
8. Domestic debt : the missing link explaining external default and high inflation --
Understanding the debt intolerance puzzle --
Domestic debt on the eve and in the aftermath of external default --
The literature on inflation and the "inflation tax" --
Defining the tax base : domestic debt or the monetary base? --
The "temptation to inflate" revisited --
9. Domestic and external default : which is worse? Who is senior? --
Real GDP in the run-up to and the aftermath of debt defaults --
Inflation in the run-up to and the aftermath of debt defaults --
The incidence of default on debts owed to external and domestic creditors --
Summary and discussion of selected issues --
pt. IV. Banking crises, inflation, and currency crashes --
10. Banking crises --
A preamble on the theory of banking crises --
Banking crises : an equal-opportunity menace --
Banking crises, capital mobility, and financial liberalization --
Capital flow bonanzas, credit cycles, and asset prices --
Overcapacity bubbles in the financial industry? --
The fiscal legacy of financial crises revisited --
Living with the wreckage : some observations --
11. Default through debasement : an "old world favorite" --
12. Inflation and modern currency crashes --
An early history of inflation crises --
Modern inflation crises : regional comparisons --
Currency crashes --
The aftermath of high inflation and currency collapses --
Undoing domestic dollarization. pt. V. The U.S. subprime meltdown and the second great contraction --
13. The U.S. subprime crisis : an international and historical comparison --
A global historical view of the subprime crisis and its aftermath --
The this-time-is-different syndrome and the run-up to the subprime crisis --
Risks posed by sustained U.S. borrowing from the rest of the world : the debate before the crisis --
The episodes of postwar bank-centered financial crisis --
A comparison of the subprime crisis with past crises in advanced economies --
Summary --
14. The aftermath of financial crises --
Historical episodes revisited --
The downturn after a crisis : depth and duration --
The fiscal legacy of crises --
Sovereign risk --
Comparisons with experiences from the first great contraction in the 1930s --
Concluding remarks --
15. The international dimensions of the subprime crisis : the results of contagion or common fundamentals? --
Concepts of contagion --
Selected earlier episodes --
Common fundamentals and the second great contraction --
Are more spillovers under way? --
16. Composite measures of financial turmoil --
Developing a composite index of crises : the BCDI index --
Defining a global financial crisis --
The sequencing of crises : a prototype --
Summary --
pt. VI. What have we learned? --
17. Reflections on early warnings, graduation, policy responses, and the foibles of human nature --
On early warnings of crises --
The role of international institutions --
Graduation --
Some observations on policy responses --
The latest version of the this-time-is-different syndrome --
Data appendixes --
A.1. Macroeconomic time series --
A.2. Public debt --
A.3. Dates of banking crises --
A.4. Historical summaries of banking crises --
Notes --
References --
Name index --
Subject index.
Responsibility: Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff.

Abstract:

Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, this title presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government  Read more...

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Winner of the 2011 Gold Medal Arthur Ross Book Award, Council on Foreign Relations Winner of the 2010 Paul A. Samuelson Award, TIAA-CREF One of USA Today's "Year's Best Business Books To Make Sense Read more...

 
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