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Time predictions : understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life

Author: Torleif Halkjelsvik; Magne Jørgensen
Publisher: Cham, Switzerland : Springer Open, [2018]
Series: Simula SpringerBriefs on computing, volume 5
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task, or daily activity can be difficult, and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it, and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more  Read more...
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Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Torleif Halkjelsvik; Magne Jørgensen
ISBN: 9783319749525 3319749528
OCLC Number: 1031639968
Description: xii, 110 pages : illustrations (some color) ; 24 cm
Contents: Preface.- 1. Introduction: 1.1 A prediction success.- 1.2 Prediction disasters.- 2. How we Predict Time Usage: 2.1 Mental time travel.- 2.2 How did you make that prediction?.- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere.- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time?.- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future: 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right?.- 3.2 Communication of time predictions.- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions.- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions.- 3.5 Relearning to add: 2 + 2 is usually more than 4.- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage.- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance.- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions: 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions.- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism.- 4.3 The desire to control time.- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions.- 4.5 Selection bias.- 4.6 Deception.- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions?.- 5. Time Prediction Biases: 5.1 The team scaling fallacy.- 5.2 Anchoring.- 5.3 Sequence effects.- 5.4 Format effects.- 5.5 The magnitude effect.- 5.6 Length of task description.- 5.7 The time unit effect.- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions: 6.1 Why are we overconfident?.- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence?.- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats.- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback.- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles: 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition.- 7.2 Analogies.- 7.3 Relative predictions.- 7.4 Time prediction models.- 7.5 Consider alternative futures.- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions.- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction?.- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information.- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt sizes: Time predictions using alternative scales.- 8. Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation.- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.
Series Title: Simula SpringerBriefs on computing, volume 5
Responsibility: Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen.

Abstract:

It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time  Read more...

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