Uncertain judgements : eliciting experts' probabilities (eBook, 2006) [WorldCat.org]
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Uncertain judgements : eliciting experts' probabilities

Uncertain judgements : eliciting experts' probabilities

Author: Anthony O'Hagan
Publisher: London ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, ©2006.
Series: Statistics in practice.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Uncertain judgements.
London ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, ©2006
(DLC) 2006299689
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Anthony O'Hagan
ISBN: 0470033312 9780470033319 0470033304 9780470033302 0470029994 9780470029992 1280648872 9781280648878 9786610648870 6610648875
OCLC Number: 85785187
Language Note: English.
Description: 1 online resource (xiii, 321 pages) : illustrations
Contents: Fundamentals of probability and judgement --
The elicitation context --
The psychology of judgement under uncertainty --
The elicitation of probabilities --
Eliciting distributions : general --
Eliciting and fitting a parametric distribution --
Eliciting distributions : uncertainty and imprecision --
Evaluating elicitation --
Multiple experts --
Published examples of the formal elicitation of expert opinion --
Guidance on best practice --
Areas for research.
Series Title: Statistics in practice.
Responsibility: Anthony O'Hagan [and others].
More information:


Uncertain Judgments Eliciting Experts' Probabilities presents a range of tried and tested elicitation methods to enable statisticians to get make the most of expert opinion. An elicitation method  Read more...


Editorial reviews

Publisher Synopsis

"...will be of interest to those who are interested primarily in the practicalities of modeling expert judgement and opinion." (International Journal of Marketing, January 2007)

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