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  E-mail Message: I thought you might be interested in this item at http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/85785187 Title: Uncertain judgements : eliciting experts' probabilities Author: Anthony O'Hagan Publisher: London ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, ©2006. ISBN/ISSN: 0470033312 9780470033319 0470033304 9780470033302 0470029994 9780470029992 1280648872 9781280648878 9786610648870 6610648875 OCLC:85785187

  
  

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Uncertain judgements : eliciting experts' probabilities

Author:	Anthony O'Hagan
Publisher:	London ; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, ©2006.
Series:	Statistics in practice.
Edition/Format:	eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:	Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably.  Read more...
Subjects	Probabilities. Statistics. Distribution (Probability theory) View all subjects
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