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Uncertainty, expectations, and financial instability : reviving Allais's lost theory of psychological time

Author: Eric Barthalon
Publisher: New York : Columbia University Press, 2014.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize-winning economist Maurice Allais (1911-2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory proves economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Barthalon, Eric.
Uncertainty, expectations, and financial instability.
New York : Columbia University Press, ©2014
(DLC) 2014936226
(OCoLC)880565928
Named Person: Maurice Allais; Maurice Allais
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Eric Barthalon
ISBN: 9780231538305 0231538308 9781322545530 1322545537
OCLC Number: 892800113
Awards: Commended for Maurice Allais Prize in Economic Science 2015
Description: 1 online resource (xlvi, 396 pages) : illustrations
Contents: Expectations before the rational expectations revolution --
Rational expectations are endogenous to and abide by "the" model --
Macrofoundations of monetary dynamics --
Microfoundations of monetary dynamics: the HRL formulation of the demand for money --
The fundamental equation of monetary dynamics --
Joint testing of the HRL formulation of the demand for money and of the fundamental equation of monetary dynamics --
Allais's HRL formulation: illustration of its dynamic properties by an example of hyperinflation (Zimbabwe 2000-2008) --
The HRL formulation and nominal interest rates --
Perceived returns and the modeling of financial behavior --
Downside potential under risk: the Allais paradox and its conflicting interpretations --
Downside potential under uncertainty: the perceived risk of loss --
Conclusion --
Appendixes: A. How to compute Z(n) and z(n) --
B. Nominal interest rates and the perceived rate of nominal growth --
C. Proofs --
D. Comparison between the Kalman filter and Allais's HRL algorithm --
E.A note on the theory of intertemporal choice --
F. Allais's cardinal utility function.
Responsibility: Eric Barthalon.
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Abstract:

Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Maurice Allais to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises  Read more...

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The jury of the 2015 Maurice Allais prize in economic science has nominated a seasoned investment professional, Eric Barthalon, for his book, Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability. Read more...

 
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