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What deters and why : exploring requirements for effective deterrence of interstate aggression

Author: Michael J MazarrArthur ChanAlyssa DemusBryan FrederickAlireza NaderAll authors
Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation, 2018. ©2018
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
What are the requirements of effective extended deterrence of large-scale military aggression? The challenge of deterring territorial aggression, which for several decades has been an afterthought in U.S. strategy toward most regions of the world, is taking on renewed importance. An increasingly belligerent Russia is threatening Eastern Europe and the Baltic States with possible aggression, conventional and  Read more...
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Details

Genre/Form: Case studies
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Michael J Mazarr; Arthur Chan; Alyssa Demus; Bryan Frederick; Alireza Nader; Stephanie Pezard; Julia A Thompson; Elina Treyger; Rand Corporation,
ISBN: 9781977400642 1977400647
OCLC Number: 1078153648
Description: 1 online resource (xx, 212 pages) : illustrations
Contents: Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; CHAPTER ONE: Understanding Deterrence and Dissuasion; Defining Deterrence and Dissuasion; A Comprehensive Approach to Preventing Aggression: Strategies of Dissuasion; Key Distinctions; Intentions, Rationality, and Perception; The Choice to Initiate Aggression: Messy, Gradual, and Emergent; CHAPTER TWO: Effective Deterrence and Dissuasion: A Framework for Analysis; Challenges in Determining What Prevents Aggression; Category One: How Intensely Motivated Is the Aggressor? Category Two: Is the Defender Clear and Explicit Regarding What It Seeks to Prevent and What Actions It Will Take in Response?Category Three: Does the Potential Aggressor View the Defender's Threats as Credible and Intimidating?; Summary and Proposed Framework for Deterrence Effectiveness; CHAPTER THREE: Evaluating and Revising the Framework: Quantitative and Case Study Assessments; Quantitative Assessment of U.S. Extended Deterrence Cases Since 1945; Qualitative Assessment: In-Depth Extended Deterrence Case Studies; A Revised Framework of Factors Associated with Deterrence Success. CHAPTER FOUR: Applying the Revised Framework: Deterring Russia in the Baltic RegionHow Motivated Is Russia?; How Clear and Explicit Is the U.S. Deterrent Message?; Is the U.S. Deterrent Message Credible and Convincing?; Conclusion; CHAPTER FIVE: Conclusions, Recommendations, and Implications for the U.S. Army; Recommendations; Implications for the U.S. Army; APPENDIXES; A. Quantitative Analysis: Cases of U.S. Extended Deterrence Since 1945; B. Qualitative Case Study Analyses: Berlin; C. Qualitative Case Study Analyses: Deterring Saddam, 1990. D. Qualitative Case Study Analyses: NATO's Northern Flank in the Cold WarE. Qualitative Case Study Analyses: Russian Aggression Against Georgia; Bibliography.
Other Titles: Exploring requirements for effective deterrence of interstate aggression
Responsibility: Michael J. Mazarr, Arthur Chan, Alyssa Demus, Bryan Frederick, Alireza Nader, Stephanie Pezard, Julia A. Thompson, Elina Treyger.

Abstract:

What are the requirements of effective extended deterrence of large-scale military aggression? The challenge of deterring territorial aggression, which for several decades has been an afterthought in U.S. strategy toward most regions of the world, is taking on renewed importance. An increasingly belligerent Russia is threatening Eastern Europe and the Baltic States with possible aggression, conventional and otherwise. China is pursuing its territorial ambitions in the East and South China Seas with greater force, including the construction of artificial islands and occasional bouts of outright physical intimidation. North Korea remains a persistent threat to the Republic of Korea (ROK), including the possibility of large-scale aggression using its rapidly advancing nuclear arsenal. Yet the discussion of deterrence -- as a theory and practical policy requirement -- has lagged in U.S. military and strategy circles. The authors aim to provide a fresh look at the subject in this context, with two primary purposes: to review established concepts about deterrence, and to provide a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships. For greater focus, they concentrate on a specific category or form of deterrence: extended deterrence of interstate aggression. The authors consider the requirements for the United States to deter potential aggressors abroad from attacking U.S. allies or other countries in large-scale conventional conflicts. Examples include Russian attacks on the Baltic States and a North Korean assault on the ROK. The study stems from a specific research question: What are the requirements of effective extended deterrence of large-scale military aggression? The focus is therefore on the criteria that tend to distinguish successful from unsuccessful efforts to deter interstate aggression.

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