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Willful Ignorance.

Author: Herbert I Weisberg
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, 2014.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:

This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of "willful ignorance" has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain  Read more...

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Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Herbert I Weisberg
ISBN: 9780470890448 0470890444
OCLC Number: 941287326
Description: 320 s
Contents: PREFACE xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv 1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY 1 Two Dead Ends 2 Analytical Engines 4 What is Probability? 6 Uncertainty 9 Willful Ignorance 12 Toward a New Science 15 2 A QUIET REVOLUTION 19 Thinking the Unthinkable 21 Inventing Probability 24 Statistics 27 The Taming of Chance 31 The Ignorance Fallacy 34 The Dilemma of Science 35 3 A MATTER OF CHANCE 41 Origins 43 Probability 44 The Famous Correspondence 56 What Did Not Happen Next 60 AgainstThe Odds 64 4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON 71 The Mathematics of Chance 73 Empirical Frequencies 82 A Quantum of Certainty 100 5 A MATHEMATICIAN OF BASEL 114 Publication at Last 116 The Art of Conjecturing 117 A Tragic Ending 142 6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER 147 Man Without a Country 150 A Fraction of Chances 165 7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY 171 Revolutionary Reverends 173 From Chances to Probability 194 8 BABEL 213 The Great Unraveling 216 Probability as a Relative Frequency 219 Probability as a Logical Relationship 228 Probability as a Subjective Assessment 239 Probability as a Propensity 247 9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY 253 The Razor s Edge 255 What Fisher Knew 257 What Reference Class? 262 A Postulate of Ignorance 270 Laplace s Error 279 10 THE DECISION FACTORY 283 Beyond Moral Certainty 284 Decisions, Decisions 298 Machine-Made Knowledge 309 11 THE LOTTERY IN SCIENCE 312 Scientific Progress 313 Fooled by Causality 319 Statistics for Humans: Bias or Ambiguity? 331 Regression toward the Mean 339 12 TRUST, BUT VERIFY 346 A New Problem 347 Trust, 354 But Verify 357 The Future 363 Mindful Ignorance 368 APPENDIX: THE PASCAL FERMAT CORRESPONDENCE OF 1654 373 NOTES 387 BIBLIOGRAPHY 415 INDEX 429

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This volume is an outstanding example of the need to keep our scientific methods in context and the value of careful historical research to provide this context. It should be a required part of the Read more...

 
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